in NFL Free Picks

Baltimore, Md.
January 13, 2007
4:30 P.M. EST

This game features the classic, "offense vs. defense" matchup. The The Colts, on the other hand, have the best quarterback and most explosive offense in the game.

The odd part about this game is that both teams have plenty of positives on their supposedly "weaker" side of the ball. The Ravens, with the addition of quarterback, Steve McNair, have improved steadily with each passing week and are at the healthiest since the season began.

The Colts, with the league's worst rush defense during the regular season, are coming off an impressive performance in which they limited the Kansas City Chiefs' powerful running back, Larry Johnson, to a miniscule 32 yards and hounded K.C. quarterback Trent Green with relentless pressure whenever he did drop back to pass.

Here is a look at both teams and my prediction on both point lines and the outcome of the game.

The Colts didn't look particularly sharp on offense last week against a Kansas City defense, that is nowhere as talented as the Ravens' aggressive unit. Although Manning completed an impressive 30 of 38 passes, and rookie running back Joseph Addai rushed for 122 yards, the Colts will be hard-pressed to post those kinds of numbers in Baltimore.

Defensively, the Colts had better be prepared to stop Ravens running back Jamal Lewis, who may not be the runner he was when he rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2003, but is still better than average and capable of hurting the Colts. Indianapolis will also need to continue their overpowering pass rushing performance from a week ago in order to contain McNair, a former league MVP, who is still capable of taking over a game at times by himself.

If Indy can get Baltimore in a lot of third-and-long situations, the better for their talented pass-rushing tandem of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

The addition of McNair may have been the biggest news coming out of Baltimore before the season began, however, it is the Ravens overpowering defense, that has them in the position of legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Offensively, the Ravens don't rely on McNair, who had only 16 touchdown passes this season, as much as most people would think. Baltimore relies on a nice mix between their passing and running attacks that has been perfect this season (8-0) when Lewis gets 20 or more carries in a game. However, Indianapolis would be foolish to believe that McNair can't make plays with his arm.

Defensively, the Ravens are led by several Pro Bowl caliber players including defensive lineman Trevor Pryce and hybrid linebackers Adalius Thomas, Terrell Suggs and Bart Scott, who should be able to apply some sort of pressure on Manning in this contest.

Did I forget to mention the Ravens still have two former Defensive Players of the Year: their fiery leader, and one of the top 10 linebackers in the game, middle linebacker Ray Lewis, and their mega-talented safety Ed Reed?

The bottom line is that, if there is any team in the league capable of stopping Manning on a consistent basis, it would probably be the Baltimore Ravens.

The Line: Indianapolis +4 At Baltimore Over/Under 42

My Pick:
This selection was a gut-wrenching decision that left me totally exhausted, but eventually came down to which team I though was better in all three areas of the game. While my heart says Indianapolis, I can't, in good conscience, pick them to win this game. The Ravens have made an art of winning ugly this season and this game should be no different. Take the Ravens to win outright, but the Colts to cover, 20-17, keeping this game under the 42-point over/under.

Check out the odds on this matchup and all the NFL postseason games in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Here is a look at some interesting betting statistics for each team this season.

Team records:
Indianapolis: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Baltimore: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS

Indianapolis most recently:
-When playing in January are 5-5
-When playing on turf are 9-1
-After outgaining opponent are 6-4
-When playing outside the division are 9-1

Baltimore most recently:
-When playing in January are 6-4
-When playing on turf are 8-2
-After outgaining opponent are 8-2
-When playing outside the division are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
-Indianapolis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
-Indianapolis is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
-Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
-Baltimore is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
-Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
-Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

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Eric Williams is a sports columnist for the Philadelphia Sunday Sun, and Sr. NBA analyst for basketball.com as well as a nationally syndicated freelance writer for both print and online publications.