in NFL Free Picks

Indianapolis, IN, January 6, 2007, 4:30 P.M. ET

Talk about two teams with totally opposite styles. This game offers the biggest tale of two opposites since tiny David took on giant Goliath in that Biblical battle thousands of years ago.

The Indianapolis Colts have the most explosive offense in all of football and the best quarterback in the game today in Peyton Manning, while the Kansas City Chiefs rely heavily on their bruising ground game, led by the nearly incomparable Larry Johnson.

Which style will prevail in this opening round AFC Wild Card matchup? I know, but I'm not ready to share that information just yet. First, let’s take a look at each team and the upcoming matchup before I make my selections.

The Colts offense can score almost at will and should be able to put plenty of points on the board against a Kansas City defense that doesn't have many playmakers or much talent. However, the Colts always seem to underachieve at exactly the right time - for their opponents that is.

The AFC South-champion Colts are making their fifth consecutive postseason appearance and seventh in the last eight years. Unfortunately, they were routed 41-0 by the New York Jets in the wild-card round of the 2002 playoffs, lost at New England each of the next two seasons and fell at home to Pittsburgh last season, despite starting the season 13-0 and earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

If Indianapolis' run defense, which ranks last in the NFL with 173.0 yards allowed per game, plays as poorly as it has all season, Johnson could run wild. The Colts were the only team in the league to allow all 16 of their opponents to rush for at least 100 yards and gave up 5.3 yards per carry.

The Chiefs may have needed a series of inexplicable losses by other teams to get into the postseason, but the fact remains that they are there and have a fighting chance to win this game, no matter how many people say they backed in under the luckiest of circumstances.

The Chiefs will run Johnson early and often and will try to chew up the clock on every possession to keep Manning and the Colts' potent offense off the field as much as possible. Unfortunately, the Chiefs have some negatives with their team as well as they enter this contest.

First off, Kansas City will miss the services of their blocking tight end, Jason Dunn. Next up is the fact that seven K.C. starters have never played in a single postseason game in their respective careers. Finally, the Chiefs have had their share of defensive lapses throughout the course of the season as well and could stand to upgrade their overall level of defensive talent almost as badly as Indianapolis.

The Line: Indianapolis -7 Kansas City Over/Under 50.5

My Pick:
I know the Colts seem to fizzle out come playoff time with alarming regularity and the Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since January of 1994, however, this is a game the Colts should win easily. Indy is playing at home on their fast carpet and, the truth is, the Chiefs aren't very good themselves - especially on the defensive side of the ball.

If the Colts can keep Johnson from approaching 200 yards on the ground - and chewing up valuable time in the process, then they will win this game going away - and in the process cover the high 7-point spread.

Take the Colts to come out on top 31-21, not only covering the point spread, but also sending this game over 50.5-point over/under line.

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games

Get the latest for free today!

Eric Williams is a sports columnist for the Philadelphia Sunday Sun, and Sr. NBA analyst for basketball.com as well as a nationally syndicated freelance writer for both, print and online publications who can be heard weekly on BetUs.com radio at 2:15 eastern each Wednesday.