in NFL Free Picks

New Orleans Saints (10-6)
Saturday, January 13th --- Superdome, New Orleans --- 8:00pm EST
BetUS.com Line: Saints -5 (49)

Preview: The Saints and Eagles are the two Cinderella stories of the NFL. Both finished with 10-6 records. Both rose from the obscurity of last season’s woes (Saints) and injuries (Eagles). Two surprising heroes enter this game as the Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees takes on Philly’s unlikely hero, Jeff Garcia.

On Saturday, one story will come to an end while the other story continues to scribe its own legend.

Eagles Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Eagles offense has been simply outstanding with Jeff Garcia at the helm. They were so good that they finished with the second highest total offensive yards. It’s unbelievable, I know.

But Jeff Garcia has really been that good. Everyone is waiting for the bubble to burst, but Andy Reid has been flawless in his play-calling thus far. Garcia will never take over a game with his lack of arm strength, but his mobility and solid decision making are a perfect fit for Reid’s system. Garcia has been near perfect so far, only suffering two interceptions since he took over at quarterback.

Westbrook came up with a huge game against the Giants last weekend, rushing for 141 yards and a score. The Saints are ranked 23rd against the rush, allowing 128.9 yards per game, so Westbrook will be a busy man once again. Expect him to play motivated after Tiki unofficially passed him the proverbial torch last week.

The Saints have been good at keeping west-coast offenses grounded. They were highly successful against Michael Vick and the Falcons early on in the season. They lack any semblance of a “stud” on defense, so it will have to be a team effort to contain this surprisingly potent Eagles team.

Look for the Eagles to rush Westbrook early to set-up the play-action pass. Donte Stallworth will emerge with a big game against the team that dumped him rather unceremoniously.

Saints Offense vs. Eagles Defense
There was only one team that put up more total offensive yards than the Eagles during the regular season, and that was the Saints. The credit here falls to Drew Brees, who has played sensationally at quarterback. Brees has the chance to aggressively attack the Eagles’ secondary since their best corner-back, Lito Sheppard, is out with an injury.

Meanwhile, the Saints running-game will continue to be explosively dynamic. Deuce McAllister has been the workhorse, playing injury-free for the first time in three seasons. Unfortunately Deuce will be facing a nasty front-four, and line-backer Jeremiah Trotter who will terrorize the Saint’s interior, leaving little room for Deuce to drop the hammer.

The great hope for the Saints is their second overall draft pick, Reggie Bush. Payton has been extremely creative in creating schemes around Bush’s unique skill set. By the end of the season, Bush was blowing up stat sheets, scoreboards and defenses all at once. The Eagles allow 191.7 yards receiving and 136.4 yards rushing.

The Eagles will have trouble contending with accommodating their patch-work secondary, while keeping track of the elusive Reggie Bush. If they can’t get consistent pressure on Brees, the odds are that the pro-bowl quarterback will strike deep to wide-receiver Marques Colston.

Trends to Note
-Philadelphia is 4-7-1 in their last 12 games
-total has gone OVER in 5 of last 7 road games
-total has gone OVER in 4 of last 6 when Philadelphia plays New Orleans
-New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games

Final Verdict
The key to victory here is experience. Philadelphia’s Andy Reid has many years of playoff experience, while there are a number of veterans, like Jeff Garcia and Brian Dawkins, who also have it. Conversely the Saints have almost no starters with any significant wins in the post season (and no, you don’t count Reggie’s success at USC).

I hate raining in on a Cinderella story, but experience is going to win in this one. I initially called for a lower scoring game, but now I’m leaning towards a game with a heavier offensive display.

The Eagles will soar to the next round, and the Saints will go marching home.

Eagles – 38
Saints – 31

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