in NFL Free Picks

New England Patriots (12-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Sunday, January 21 --- RCA Dome, Indianapolis --- 6:30pm EST

Preview
Since Peyton Manning entered the league, he has been seen as the special kind of player that was destined to be a Super Bowl Champion. Every year, the so-called experts wait for the uncrowned prince to take his throne amongst the greats of the NFL by winning the coveted Lombardi trophy that has eluded him during his entire career.

But the Patriots have been the team of destiny, winning three of the past four Super Bowls. In the shadows of Manning’s incredible statistical achievements (a list too long to bare here), the Tom Brady has shone as the “Golden Boy” going nearly undefeated in the playoffs. By his side is the hooded Guru, Bill Belichick, who has haunted Peyton Manning in the post-season.

Will Manning be able to shake the demons and crusade into Miami? Or will the Patriots take one more step towards defining their dynasty?

Patriots Offense vs. Colts Defense
Tom Brady’s records are the most glaring numbers on the stat sheet in this one. He is 12-1 in the playoffs, 23-1 on artificial turf, 10-0 in Domes and 2-0 against the Colts in the playoffs. That should be enough to scare anyone. Brady is not scared of the Colts, and he is most certainly exceedingly comfortable playing in a dome, on turf and against an opponent he has beaten twice in the post-season.

Brady’s best passing options have been the unlikely duo of Jabar “I can’t believe I have a job” Gaffney and Reche Caldwell. The two have been marvelous playing with the Patriots this post-season and one of them will have to expose cornerback Jason David throughout the game. David is simply one of the worst cornerbacks in the league.

Bob Sanders will once again be called upon to knock the Patriots out of their shoes every chance he gets. However, if Tom Brady is able to engineer the Pats within ten yards of the goal line, then Uncle Bill will release Corey Dillon from his cage and let him rip the terrible interior run defense of the Colts to pieces.

The Colts run defense has played well in this postseason – but the numbers are deceiving. Both the Chiefs and Ravens abandoned the run because they got scared of Peyton posting massive numbers on them. Belichick will not be so short-sighted and will run Maroney and Dillon early to set up the pass. The difference is that Belichick will keep running the ball, keeping Peyton off the field and wearing the Indy defensive line.

Colts Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Patriots defense’s one weakness is speed. Tomlinson gained 123 yards on them last week, and most of it was to the outside. Coach Dungy has been keeping Addai off the field, but this is the game where he needs to let the rookie run wild. The kid has speed and the patience to wait for his blocks to develop, which will allow him to escape to the edges and move the chains with relative ease. The problem is that the Patriots plug the interior extremely well, making bulldozing tactics near to impossible in the red-zone.

The Colts boast the best receiving duo in the league in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Peyton Manning will not be scared to attack corners Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel, because he has such faith in his receivers. The pair notched 235 yards on the Patriots in their regular season meeting, so look for Harrison and Wayne to get a lot of attention early going. The last thing the Pats want is Peyton getting in rhythm with these two.

Kicker Adam Vinatieri, who is known for being ice-cold and clutch in the playoffs, will most likely have a repeat performance of their regular season match-up. In that game, he shanked two makeable field goals. Playing on the other side of the fence against the Patriots will be another tough situation for the historic kicker.

The x-factor here is what Belichick has in store for Peyton. There is no doubt that they will flash a number of blitzes and looks that Peyton has not seen yet. Belichick is simply in Peyton’s head, and will take away any big-plays that the Colts will be desperately looking for to get on the scoreboard.

Trends to Note
-total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
-New England is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
-Indianapolis is 4-14 SU in their last 18 games playing New England
-Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against New England

Final Verdict
This game will be won on the ground, as the Patriots and Colts will use their tandem running-backs to wear each other down. For the Colts, the run will inevitably set up the pass. The Patriots, on the other hand, will use their power-run game to overwhelm the thin defensive line of the Colts.

It really comes down to past history. Brady’s records simply speak for themselves. Seriously, at this point are you going to feel comfortable betting against the Patriots in the playoffs? There is no doubt that this team is filled with veterans who know exactly what to do to win the big game. That is something the Colts, and Peyton Manning, have never been able to find.

Go ahead and buy some Pepto-Bismol, because that nauseating feeling that is beginning to creep in to your stomach is the foreseeable future – another freaking’ Patriots Super Bowl. Damn.

Patriots – 34
Colts – 27

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