NFL Playoff Betting San Diego Chargers vs New England Patriots
by Eric Williams
San Diego, Calif., January 14, 2007, 4:30 PM EST
This game is a matchup between the best team in all of football this season, the New England Patriots - winners of three out of the past five Super Bowls.
The Chargers, who will be led by their all-world running back, LaDainian Tomlinson, want nothing less than a Super Bowl appearance, while the Patriots, although not quite as dominant as they were a couple of years ago, are playing their best football of the season at just the right time. This battle should be the best divisional game of the weekend and could literally go down as one of the great playoff games of all-time.
Here is a look at the upcoming matchup and my prediction on the spread, total and the outright winner:
San Diego Chargers (14-2)
When the Chargers are on offense, they will obviously try to get the ball in the hands of Tomlinson, who may be called upon more in this game as a receiver than a rusher. Of more importance, however, will be the play of quarterback Philip Rivers who will have to face a Patriot defense that may not have many big name players, but is almost as solid as any in the league right now. If Rivers doesn't get dumbfounded by Bill Belichick's complex defenses, he may be able to loosen up New England's defense by hitting Tomlinson out of the backfield or tight end Antonio Gates down the middle, putting the Chargers in position to consistently put points up on the board.
Defensively, San Diego will try to pressure New England quarterback Tom Brady into making some uncharacteristic errors, with their talented duo of pass-rushing linebackers, Shawne Merriman (17 sacks) and Shaun Phillips (11½ sacks). If the Chargers can make Brady get rid of the ball earlier than he wants to, half of the battle is already won for the San Diego. They will, however, also have to contend with the Patriots running back combination of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, both fine runners in their own right.
New England Patriots (13-4)
Although the Chargers have been nearly unbeatable all season, it should be no surprise that it is the Patriots who may have the best chance of any team left in the playoffs of derailing San Diego's Super Bowl freight train. Having said that, the Patriots will have their work cut out for them and then some.
The Patriots offensive line will need to protect Brady and give him time to find open receivers. If this happens, New England should be able to run the ball more efficiently against the Chargers spectacular front seven. If not, then Brady and his underrated core of receivers are going to be in for a long afternoon.
Defensively, New England will need to pressure young quarterback Philip Rivers into making more mental mistakes in this game than he has all season. If the Pats can pressure Rivers and cover Tomlinson and Gates, then they have a decent shot at winning. If New England's solid, but unspectacular linebackers, can't keep up with the Chargers go-to players, then this game could turn into a rout.
The more I thought about it, the more I came to the conclusion that the Chargers were a better team in all three areas (offense, defense, special teams).
New England, even with Belichick's genius, are going to be in for an uphill battle all game and just don't have enough athletes to stop Tomlinson and Gates. Not only that, but, for such a young player, Rivers is extremely mature and has shown poise in every game this season, even in the Chargers two losses and a few other games where he didn't play particularly well.
Take the Chargers to win this game and cover the 4.5 point spread as well, 28-21.
Check out the odds on this matchup and all the NFL postseason games in the BetUs Sportsbook.
Here is a look at some interesting betting statistics for each team this season.
Team records:
New England: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
San Diego: 14-2 SU, 9-7 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in January are 8-2
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
San Diego most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 12 games
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Eric Williams is a sports columnist for the Philadelphia Sunday Sun, and Sr. NBA analyst for basketball.com as well as a nationally syndicated freelance writer for both print and online publications.
