in NFL Free Picks

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Saturday, January 13th - M&T Bank Stadium - 4:30 EST

Preview
Peyton Manning and Steve McNair were co-MVP’s in 2003, and are two of the best quarterbacks in today’s game to have never won the Superbowl. The Ravens (13-3). Which QB will be one step closer to the Holy Grail of football after this intense matchup?

Colts Offense vs. Ravens Defense
To put it simply, running-back Joseph Addai is going to have a tiny effect on this game. Baltimore’s defense only allows 75.9 yards on the ground per game, second best in the league. The Colts have no choice but to try and run the ball, but Addai will find little success against the speed, power and great tackling the Ravens bring to the table.

That leaves quarterback Peyton Manning, who will be facing a huge challenge. Though Indy allowed the fewest sacks in the league (15), the Ravens were second best in the league with 60. The defensive-line for the Ravens is absolutely punishing, and will look to wear down Manning’s highly touted offensive line.

Though the Ravens are known for a stifling defense in every level, their secondary is vulnerable to one thing: the deep pass (a.k.a. the long bomb). This is something that Manning excels at, namely because of his star wide-receivers, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Peyton will look to connect with Harrison and Wayne vertically, with corner-back Samari Rolle being the target he picks on most.

The key player for the Colts is tight-end Dallas Clark, who has emerged as one of Peyton’s favorite targets. His role underneath will be paramount, since Peyton will refrain from taking too many strikes against safety Ed Reed and corner-back Chris McAlister.

Ravens Offense vs. Colts Defense
Last week, the Chiefs made a terrible move by abandoning the run early on in the game. Do not expect the Ravens to make the same mistake. They will put the game in the hands of running-back, Jamal Lewis, who has re-emerged as the bull-dozer we all know and love.

It’s been a well documented fact that the Colts are the worst team in the NFL against the run, and Jamal Lewis is the kind of back who will wear you down. The Colts are a defense predicated on speed, while the Ravens’ rush attack is fueled by down-hill power. That simply does not bode well for the Colts.

The secondary for the Colts is keyed by safety Bob Sanders, who returned last week to inspire the Colts’ highly criticized defense. When the Ravens decide to throw, Steve McNair has proven he makes great decisions. Tight-end Todd Heap is a match-up nightmare for Indy, since nobody in their secondary is tall enough to cover him.

The Ravens’ offense gets lost in the shadow of their tremendous defense, but don’t be fooled. This offense put up 22.1 points per game and Steve McNair is cagey enough to find ways to win when needed.

Trends to Note
-Colts are 2-4 ATS in last 6 games
-total has gone under in 7 of last 10 when Indy plays Baltimore
-Indy is 1-4 SU on the road against Baltimore
-Baltimore is 4-1 ATS at home

Final Verdict
The Colts have earned respect because they have grinded out wins this season. While Manning certainly hasn’t been the gamebreaker of old, he is still a deadly threat to a Raven’s secondary that is susceptible to the big play. However, the Ravens defense will prove to be too much for Manning on this day.

The Ravens will make the Colts a one-dimensional team by shutting down the run. Meanwhile, all the Ravens will do is run the ball. Behind Lewis, and running-back Mike Anderson, the Ravens will pound the ball straight into a Colts d-line which is not built to withstand four quarters of abuse.

The Ravens will win this game because they can score in every phase of the game. Thank goodness Peyton is doing all those commercials, because he’s about to have a lot of spare time come Saturday evening.

Indianapolis -17
Baltimore - 24

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