in NFL Free Picks

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs. Chicago Bears (13-3)
February 4th, 2007 --- Dolphin Stadium, Miami --- 6:30pm EST
 

Preview
The NFL and the NFC’s powerhouse team for the last two years.

When they clash in Miami on Sunday, only one team will be able to walk away with the trophy.

Colts Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Bears defense did a marvelous job of pressuring Drew Brees into making some horrible mistakes in the NFC Championship. It is imperative that they do the same against a Colts offense capable of setting the scoreboard on fire.

The key for the Colts will be establishing a running game to take the pressure off of Peyton Manning and allowing him freedom to make plays. This will be a problem for the Colts because the Bears love to do two things – play fast and swarm the hell out of the football.

Joseph Addai has shown flashes of brilliance in the post-season, but he will be facing the fastest defense he has faced since taking over full-time as the Colts main rushing threat. Linebackers Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher will make his life a living hell if he tries to run to the outside on either of these two behemoths.

When throwing the ball, Briggs and Urlacher will be busy containing tight end Dallas Clark. Clark, surprisingly, has been the engine of this offense. His emergence has allowed wide-receivers Reggie Wayne and “Marvelous” Marvin Harrison to get into one-on-one coverage.

The Bears will attempt to frustrate Manning by taking away his big play receivers (Harrison and Wayne) and neutralizing the running game. They have the speed and agility in the secondary to make that happen. If Manning blows a gasket trying to force things into non-existent gaps, then the Bears will get the turnovers they will be so desperately hunting for.

The fact remains that the Colts are the Colts. They love putting points on the board, and the Bears defense will be playing on their heels most of the game. The Bears have an aggressive defense, but offenses have been able to move the chains against them. The Colts must remain patient, and Peyton Manning must spread the ball around so that the Bears’ secondary can not focus on one target.

Bears Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Colts defense caught some lucky breaks when Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell of the Patriots suddenly, and inconceivably, became allergic to the football last week. While the rushing defense has shown fantastic improvement with Bob Sanders creeping into the box at safety, they will be tested again by Lovie Smith.

The Bears will simply not put this game into Rex Grossman’s hands. Instead, the Bears will turn to their tandem running back system to gash up the Colts’ front four. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are two tailbacks who run the same way: downhill, power running. That is exactly the kind of running that the Colts’ line is susceptible to. Running back Jamal Lewis was having a fine day against that defense until the Ravens inexplicably started to air the ball out.

Running the ball and forcing Sanders to move up to contain it will be the key to the Bears offense. If Grossman notices wide-receiver Bernard Berrien in one-on-one coverage, then he will surely use the play-action pass to hit the speed freak for big time yardage. Berrien has been noted to make fools of any corner trying to keep up with him in a foot race, and has put a bevy of points up in the process.

The key to beating the Colts will be a consistent and productive rushing game. Neither Benson or Jones are gamebreakers, but they can grind defenses like their skin was made of sand paper. A consistent rushing attack will take the pressure off of Rex Grossman and allow him to hit Berrien up the sidelines or tight end Desmond Clark up the middle.

Do not negate the fact that the Bears do not have to be productive on offense to win games. With their offense on the sideline, their defense and special teams have the personnel and explosiveness to generate points. The Bears will be playing it safe with Grossman at the helm and they will force the Colts on their heels, while keeping Peyton off the field.

Trends to Note
-Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
-The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
-Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
-Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Final Verdict
This game will come down to expectations. The Bears will show no shame in losing to the Colts. The Colts, however, have everything to lose in this game. They are the supposed powerhouse of the AFC, and Peyton Manning knows this might be his only trip to the Super Bowl. He has to make the best of it.

The two-thirds rule has been in effect for the Bears all season. There are three parts to a team: offense, defense and special teams. The Bears defense and special teams are far better than the Colts hands down. Do not sleep on Devin Hester, the kick-return record breaker for the Bears.

In a game where one team has very few expectations on them, and the other team has almost everything riding on the outcome, you go with the team that has the least to lose. In this case, sad to say, that team is the Indianapolis Colts.

Colts – 27

Bears – 31

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