in NFL Free Picks

This NFL Week One Free Pick features a matchup between the Green Bay Packers for the NFL’s opening weekend.

Let’s take a look at both teams as they head into the 2007 NFL season.

Philadelphia (10-6 last season)

The Eagles have won two of their last three season-openers and went a respectable 8-7-1 ATS last season, good enough for 10th in the league. The Eagles were also a solid 4-3-1 on the road ATS and an even better 7-5-1 ATS on grass, which says they stand an excellent chance to cover in this game. Philadelphia was second in the league in total offense in 2006, outscoring their opponents last season 398 to 328

The Eagles had one of the poorest drafts this year and may pay for trading away their first-round pick and grabbing a questionable quarterback with their second-round pick, although they already have at least two serviceable backups already on their roster in veterans Kelly Holcomb and A.J. Feely.

The addition of former Pro Bowl linebacker Takeo Spikes won’t help the Birds much in their most problematic areas - defensive line and secondary.

Green Bay: (8-8 last season) The Packers have lost two straight season openers after winning three of four from 2001-2004. Green Bay was 7-8-1 ATS last season, 19th in the league.

More importantly for bettors, the Packers were a dismal 2-6 ATS at homelast season and only 5-7 ATS on grass.

Green Bay was ninth in total offense last season and a surprising 12th on defense, allowing 320.9 yards per contest.

The Packers had a very good draft – but a mediocre free agency signing period – which is crucial to quick rebuilding plans these days.

Rookies DT Justin Harrell, RB Brandon Jackson and WR James Jones will all make the roster and provide significant upgrades at their respective positions for the Packers.

Analysis: On the surface, this would appear to be a winnable game for the Green Bay, but, even at this early stage of the regular season, the Eagles are just a flat-out better team than the Packers.

Green Bay, like most teams, does not have a linebacker on their roster that can cover Eagles’ running back Brian Westbrook when Philadelphia chooses to throw the ball to the elusive back out of the backfield.

Not only do they have more experienced, veteran players, but Philadelphia’s coaching staff is far superior to the Packers. Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jimmie Johnson is arguably the best in the league at his position.

The stats say that Philadelphia are likely one of the top four teams in the NFC. Take the Eagles and don’t look back, as Philadelphia should take the Packers in this game by at least a touchdown.

NFL Free Pick: Eagles -3½

All NFL props.