Up to NFL Free Picks

in NFL Free Picks

NFL Week 10 Betting - Patriots vs. Colts is the Game of the Week

Bookmark and Share by D.S. Williamson

NFL:  Brady versus Manning is as Important as Ever

Game-day:  11/15/2009

Kick-off:  8:20 pm EST

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are in the lead in the AFC East.  Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts are in the lead in the AFC South.  Brady and the Pats are 6 and 2 on the season.  Manning and the Colts are 8 and 0 on the season.

Pats vs. Colts.  A game between two of the best NFL franchises in the modern day history of the league takes place once again this Sunday when the New England Patriots take on the undefeated Colts in Indianapolis.

The Patriots have been superb since losing in the fifth week of the season to the Denver Broncos.  New England has racked up three victories in a row and has looked exceptional doing it.  The Pats shut out the Tennessee Titans 59 to 0 as 9 ½ point favorites.  Then, they thumped Tampa Bay 35 to 7 as 15 ½ point favorites.  Last week, the Patriots took it to the Miami Dolphins 27 to 17 as 10 ½ point NFL betting faves.

In NFL Week 10 betting, they travel to Indianapolis where they are going to be underdogs for the first time in 2009.

Indianapolis looked like the best team in the NFL up until two weeks ago when they struggled against the San Francisco 49’ers, beating San Fran 18 to 14 and not coming close to covering a 13 point spread.  Just last week they needed a missed field goal by Houston Texans kicker Kris Brown in order to secure a 20 to 17 victory.

Are their chinks in the Colts’ armor?  NFL wagering fans had better believe it.

Before getting into that, let’s take a look at the NFL odds in the football sportsbook.

New England Patriots                       +2 ½ -110        +120                O 49 ½ -110

Indianapolis Colts                             -2 ½ -110         -140                 U 49 ½ -110

Here are a few online betting trends for this game.

  • The New England Patriots are 5 and 2 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.
  • The New England Patriots are 8 and 2 against the spread in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
  • The Indianapolis Colts are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite.
  • The Indianapolis Colts are 1 and 5 against the spread in their last 6 games on field turf.

Now, let’s take a look at how the offenses and defenses matchup.

Patriots’ Offense vs. Colts’ Defense

The Patriots’ offense is about as good as any offense in the NFL.  Future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady throws the ball to future Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss.  Laurence Maroney provides a decent rushing attack and WR Wes Welker is the quintessential slot receiver.

The Patriots average 28 points and 409 total yards per game.  The Pats have scored 25 points or more in 6 of their 8 games and appears to be in full stride after putting up 59 against the Titans, 35 against Tampa Bay and 27 against Miami in their last three games.  This offense relies on Brady’s accuracy and decision making in order to succeed. 

Often times, teams try to take Randy Moss out of the Patriots’ plans.  That ends up costing them as Welker, Maroney and tight end Benjamin Watson are more than capable of picking up the slack if Moss is subdued.

The Colts’ D is going to find the going very tough on Sunday.  Their pass defense, currently ranked 9th in the league hasn’t faced an air attack like Brady and the Patriots.  The Colts allowed QB Matt Schaub to throw for 311 yards and a touchdown last week.

Brady is better than Schaub, has more weapons, and should pick the Colts apart since both safety Bob Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson are out for the season.  Without those two, Indy has little chance of keeping both Welker and Moss from putting up big numbers on Sunday.

Patriots’ Defense vs. Colts’ Offense

The Patriots’ excel at stopping the pass.  They give up over 112 yards on the ground per game but against the pass they are terrific. 

Teams, on average, put up 179 yards per game through the air against the Patriots.  That’s fantastic and is one of the reasons that this team is 6 and 2.  Because teams have issues throwing against the Patriots, they tend to force the run.  Forcing the run doesn’t do much against Indianapolis because linebackers Jerrod Mayo, Adalius Thomas and Tully Banta-Cain have gelled as a unit since the first four weeks of the season. 

The Miami Dolphins, who average over 150 yards on the ground per game, were held to 133 against the Pats last week.  If teams can’t run against the Patriots and they can’t pass against the Patriots what do they do?  They lose.  That’s what they do.

New England has outscored their opponents 121 to 24 in their last 3 games.  A lot of the difference has been due to the Pats’ terrific D.

Any offense led by Peyton Manning is going to have a chance to win.  This year, the Colts have the 4th ranked offense in the NFL.  Peyton averages 315 passing yards per game, mostly to Reggie Wayne, and the Colts score roughly 27 points per game.

That’s the good news.  The bad news is that the Pats’ rushing game is almost nonexistent.  The Colts average only 85 yards per game on the ground.  Against San Francisco, the Colts rushed for only 61 yards and a measly 72 yards against the Texans.

Without a rushing game, the Colts could be in trouble against this New England defense.

The Best NFL Bet Is…

The Patriots on the NFL moneyline at +120.  New England has played against much better teams than Indianapolis has in 2009.

Not only that, but the Colts were lucky to beat San Francisco and Houston.  New England is a far superior team than either the 49’ers or the Texans.  The Colts’ D won’t be able to stop Brady, Moss, Welker and Maroney while the Colts’ offense, without a true rushing attack, will have problems moving the ball against the New England defense.

New England should win this game straight-up.