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NFL Week 10 Expert Picks - Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

Bookmark and Share by Eric Williams

Tennessee Titans (-6½) vs.
Buffalo Bills (+6½)
O/U (40½)

Sunday, November 15th - 1:00 PM ET

Vince Young is back, putting his trademark style on the Tennessee Titans (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U) while leading the AFC South ballclub two its only two victories of the season in each of the last two weeks.

While Young hasn’t thrown the ball for eye-popping numbers (as usual) all he’s done is lead the Titans to consecutive solid SU and ATS victories the last two times out.

Young will try to help Tennessee to win its third straight game when the Titans battle the Buffalo Bills (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U) on Sunday at 1 PM ET.

Let’s examine this matchup before I lay down my NFL expert pick for this matchup:

Tennessee Trends

  • The Titans are 1-2 ATS at home.
  • The Titans are 2-3 ATS as the underdog.
  • The Titans are 0-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Buffalo Trends

  • The Bills are 3-1 ATS away.
  • The Bills are 3-2 ATS as the underdog.
  • The Bills are 3-0 ATS as an away underdog.

What Each Club Must Do To Win

Tennessee Titans

The Titans need to stop the pass against the Bills if they want to win, but likely won’t have much trouble doing so in this contest despite being ranked dead last in pass defense (278.4 ypg). The Bills have struggled to throw the ball all season long, averaging just 158.8 passing yards per game (30th) despite having two fantastic wide receivers in veterans, Terrell Owens and Lee Evans.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo looks like they could be in big trouble against a Titans rushing attack that is ranked second in the league with a stellar average of 165.2 rushing yards per game. The Bills have allowed opposing running backs to run roughshod over them this year, giving up an average of 158.8 (30th) and will be facing the fastest running back in the game today in fleet-footed Titans’ halfback Chris Johnson the league rushing leader with 959 rushing yards and an unheard-of 6.7 yards per carry average.

NFL Odds

  • Tennessee Titans -6½ Points
  • Over/Under 43½ Points

Analysis: Vince Young has only thrown one TD and one interception in each of the last two weeks, but he has put his best quality (and the quality that made him the third overall pick in the 2006 NFL draft) on display in both games. That would be his ability to win games and inspire his teammates no matter what the stat sheet says at the end of the game.

I also like the way Young has responded to losing his starting job to veteran quarterback Kerry Collins last season – and his play in the last two games has been an eye-opener to Titans fans the last two weeks as well as Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher.

"This experience has been good for him," Fisher told reporters this week. "He's approaching things professionally. He's focused. He's not distracted and he's excited about each and every play."

The Bills are averaging just 15.8 points per contest this season (28th), and almost assuredly won’t be able to stop Johnson and Young if the elusive quarterback gets outside of the pocket which is why I like the Titans to extend their modest two-game slide and win – and cover the spread – in their third straight game despite the fact that Buffalo will be well-rested following its Week 10 bye.

NFL Free Picks: Titans -6.5 Points