Sunday Night Betting Preview – Roethlisberger vs. Flacco

Do you know how Joe Flacco ended up in Delaware?

He transferred after losing his starting job at Pittsburgh University. If there’s any city that he’d rather screw over, it’d be the city of Pittsburgh, which stands to lose their chances of defending their championship in the playoffs thanks to injuries to Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger. This line is going to dance all through Sunday as news and alerts emerge about Big Ben’s status, so hold off on laying down the line until you’re closer to game time. But here are the things you have to be worried about…

First off, the Steelers are 1-5 ATS when Polamalu is out of the game. Their only spread win without him came against the San Diego Chargers when they opened up to a 28-0 lead en route to a 38-28 win. While the Steelers often play well on the road, they’ve been a shell of themselves this year going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road tries. In terms of actual contenders, the Steelers are one of the pro football bets around, going 3-7 ATS this season. Simply put: without Troy, they’re not worth sniffing.

That doesn’t mean that I’m 100% faithful in Baltimore’s defense. Ray Lewis is getting injured and Ed Reed is making big mistakes. That doesn’t necessarily stop them from making big plays but it makes them curiously suspect to giving up points on the scoreboard. Baltimore is 10-4 ATS at home and 17-7 ATS overall with a top-10 offense that gives up just 17.1 points overall and 76.8 yards on the ground at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Sunday, November 29th --- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore --- 8:20pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Baltimore -2.5

On top of that, the Steelers have become a very simple team. Their rushing attack is strictly north-south now that Willie Parker is completely useless. Blame that on the loss of Alan Faneca to the Jets, but it’s not like Rashard Mendenhall is the kind of bruiser Jerome Bettis was. The Ravens stiff rushing defense took a stern loss with the cheap shot on Suggs, but they’re deep and well coached and that stretches a long way.

The Ravens rushing game, however, is deadly. They rank 11th at home with 129.0 rushing yards. Ray Rice, formerly of Rutgers, is a dual threat that can catch passes and run downhill, and when he gets in the ball in his hands, he’s a danger to take it to the house. If Polamalu was on the field, it would make Rice’s value drop, but without the Hairball of Doom roaming the secondary, Rice will have plenty of open routes to find.

Roethlisberger is supposed to play in this game, and I’m not sure that’s such a good idea against the blitz happy Ravens. Roethlisberger is third in the league in sacks.  He’s great at throwing on the run, but he’s not Speedy Gonzalez. With the Ravens pursuing him in the backfield trying to give him his second concussion in two weeks, there’s no way Big Ben can play without his health in mind. I don’t trust the Ravens entirely, but that kind of x-factor makes me even more nervous about Pittsburgh. That’s why, not so surprisingly, I’m taking the Ravens at home.

For Flacco, it will be a chance to prove to the city of Pittsburgh that he’s the real deal, and it also completely ruins the Steelers’ chances at the post season. How sweet it is (revenge, that is).

Furious Free Pick: Baltimore -2.5 (UNDER 42)