Super Bowl LI Prop Betting

With every Super Bowl comes a dizzying amount of prop bets. Super Bowl 51 is no different. Every decent sportsbook in the world offers prop bets on everything imaginable that has to do with the Super Bowl. Most NFL handicappers know about the coin toss prop bet, the first play prop bet, and the various individual player props.

Not all props require skill. Take the above example. Does any NFL handicapper really know which team is going to win the coin toss? That's a wild guess prop that, although 50/50 odds aren't bad, always gives the edge to the house because the extra juice paid.

As with all sports betting, finding value bets is the best way to go when it comes to prop betting. See below for four value prop bets for Super Bowl LI! 

First Offensive Play of the Game
Pass -160
Run +130

In a lot of cases, this can be a wild guess prop bet as well. But, since the Patriots and the Falcons are this year's Super Bowl teams, the First Offensive Play of the Game prop could lead to profit in Super Bowl LI. The pass prop receives the most love at -160. It's a bad bet.

Atlanta's head coach is Dan Quinn. He's a defensive first coach. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has learned that patience is the key. The Falcons are going to want to establish the run first, if they can, since their one edge over New England is with their two running backs:  Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

The Patriots have much respect for Atlanta's offense. Although the Falcons give up a ton of passing yards, Atlanta's defensive line pressured both Russell Wilson in the Divisional Playoffs and Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship.

Both teams could look to start things off with their ground game in the opening plays of the game.

Winning Margin
Patriots by 13 - 18 +650

The betting line hasn't moved since being established at New England -3 shortly after the Patriots demolished Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. What's interesting is that the line should be Patriots -6…at least.

Atlanta's defense has a serious problem stopping the Patriots' rush and pass while New England's defense yielded an average of 15.6 points per game during the regular season. I think taking a shot on the Patriots to win by 13 to 18 points could lead to a nice +650 hit.

Both Halves
Patriots to win both halves +250

New England also offers great odds to win both halves of Super Bowl LI. The Pats should win the second half, no problem. New England's coaches are the best in the NFL at making half time adjustments. Winning the first half might be harder. But, since Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniel, and Matt Patricia have had two weeks to prepare for the Falcons, I'll take the +250 odds on New England to get the lead early and then to extend the lead in the second half.

Team to Score the Longest Touchdown
Patriots -120
Falcons -110

Both teams are decent at stopping the big play. For Atlanta, their big play receiver is Taylor Gabriel. He was a no-show against Green Bay in the NFC Championship because the Packers were the one team in the NFL that didn't think they had to change their defense to account for the great Julio Jones.

Jones went nuts over Green Bay. Patricia won't allow Jones to go nuts over the Patriots' D. Gabriel could be in line for some deep passes or long catch and run potentials. Then again, Tom Brady has developed a sweet rapport with New England WR Chris Hogan. Those two were unbelievable in the AFC Championship.

The Patriots' odds in this prop make them an overlay. Although they're the favorite, they should be a -130 favorite, not a -120 favorite. There's a chance that Atlanta's Matt Ryan could hook up with Gabriel for a long catch. But, the Patriots' secondary is vastly superior to Atlanta's.

I like Brady-to-Hogan more than I like Ryan-to-Gabriel. My money is going to be on the Patriots at -120.