in NFL Props
Carson Palmer vs. The Field
by Ian James
Carson Palmer, who came to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2003 after winning the Heisman Trophy, sat on the bench as a rookie quarterback. After taking his lumps as a starter the next year, he broke out in his third season, throwing 32 touchdown passes and leading the Bengals to the playoffs.
In the first playoff game, on his first playoff throw, Palmer tore both his ACL and MCL and was facing a long rehabilitation. He came back in 2006 to pass for 4035 yards and win the Pro Bowl MVP. Palmer played only four games in 2008 before going down for the season with an elbow injury. He injured his ankle in the first pre-season game, but will be ready for Cincinnati's season opener.
With that in mind, let's do some QB matchups:
PALMER vs. ROETHLISBERGER
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +1 TD Passes -120
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers -1 TD Passes -120
Roethlisberger has thrown for more than 18 TD's just one time in his career. We know what Palmer can do, when he is healthy and working in concert with his receivers. If Laveranues Coles works out for him, along with Chad Ochocinco, that represents some potential big numbers. Let's not forget all the touchdown passes this guy has passed for in his career.
The Pick: PALMER (+1, -120)
PALMER vs. RIVERS
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +4½ TD Passes -125
Philip Rivers ~ Chargers -4½ TD Passes -115
Rivers busted out for 34 TD passes last year. The question becomes whether he can approach those numbers again. He probably won't if LaDanian Tomlinson has any kind of season. I consider Palmer and his passing game to be potentially more explosive with somebody like Chad Ochocinco as a big threat rather than Vincent Jackson, who is the best the Chargers have to offer. Remember that Chris Chambers will have to have a strong comeback season for Rivers to reach big numbers here.
The Pick: PALMER (+4.5, -125)
PALMER vs. MCNABB
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals -2 TD Passes -120
Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles +2 TD Passes -120
McNabb is getting his weapons together, and I see the Eagles as a potentially explosive offense. I like the acquisitions of Jeremy Maclin (because he can make big plays), LeSean McCoy (because he can take a big load off Bryan Westbrook) and Cornelius Ingram (because he has nice upside) as well as Jason Peters, who can protect McNabb better than before. Can McNabb stay healthy? That's the same question people have about Palmer.
The Pick: McNABB (+2, -120)
PALMER vs. CUTLER
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +1 TD Passes -120
Jay Cutler ~ Bears -1 TD Passes -120
There is no question that Jay Cutler will upgrade the Chicago Bears' offense. The question is, how many dependable outlets does he have to throw to? Greg Olson is going to be a heck of a tight end, and a great outlet for Cutler's passes. Devin Hester is a speedster and potential playmaker, but he is not the best route-runner in the world. Matt Forte is a tremendous double-duty back, but how many receptions will he break for touchdowns? Other than that, there are unproven guys and rookies.
The Pick: PALMER (+1, -120)
PALMER vs. ROMO
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +3½ TD Passes -120
Tony Romo ~ Cowboys -3½ TD Passes -120
The biggest possible problem for Palmer backers here is that he gets injured and misses some action. Romo is going to produce some numbers, no matter who he plays with, but there aren't really any scary wide receivers on the Dallas side, so to an extent he could be limited. Remember that Terrell Owens, who they let go, is second on the all-time list for receiving touchdowns.
The Pick: PALMER (+3.5, -120)
PALMER vs. RODGERS
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +3½ TD Passes -120
Aaron Rodgers ~ Packers -3½ TD Passes -120
Rodgers is the guy who really scares me, because we know from last year's performance that he is a "numbers guy," throwing 28 TD's in his first full year as a starter, and in the wake of Brett Favre's legacy no less. We have seen Palmer put up higher numbers than that, but then again, Rodgers could improve those numbers greatly for a Green Bay offense that should be wide open.
The Pick: RODGERS (-3.5, -120)
PALMER vs. RYAN
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals -4 TD Passes -120
Matt Ryan ~ Falcons +4 TD Passes -120
I'm sure the Falcons are going to take the leash off Ryan, who threw 16 TD's last year, to a certain degree. It helps that he has Tony Gonzalez on board. However, I know the basic philosophy of coach Mike Smith is not to fill the air with footballs, but to be a running team first, as opposed to Marvin Lewis, who would probably go with the pass all day long if it's working, and may not have much in the way of run support. The point is, I think Ryan's numbers will be under relative control.
The Pick: PALMER (-4, -120)
PALMER vs. WARNER
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +4½ TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -4½ TD Passes -120
Both guys would have to stay healthy to make this thing interesting, and that is no guarantee. I have to give a slight edge to Warner, because even though neither guy is liable to be primarily dependent on the running game, he's got Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston to throw to, while Palmer doesn't have that kind of depth in his receiving corps.
The Pick: WARNER (-4.5, -120)
