in NFL Props
Kurt Warner Props vs. The NFL's Best QB's
by Charles Jay
NFL Football Futures Betting
KURT WARNER VS. THE FIELD
Kurt Warner's NFL career has a storybook feel to it. A graduate of Northern Iowa who played in the Arena Football League, he was working as a stock boy in a supermarket before he was able to latch onto some work as a backup with the St. Louis Rams. In 1999, the Rams had signed Trent Green and had high hopes. But those hopes were dashed when Green went out for the season in an exhibition game. After Dick Vermeil cried his eyes out about it, Warner stepped in and became a record-setting passer, taking the Rams to a Super Bowl victory and winning an MVP award, capping off one of the most amazing episodes in league annals.
Warner's history indicates that he will produce when healthy. His career completion percentage is second all-time among quarterbacks who have attempted a minimum of 1500 passes (Chad Pennington ranks first). He also had the fifth most completions in a single season, as he connected on 401 passes last year. This season he could move into third place, or conceivably even second, on the all-time list for 300-yard games. He has led the league in passing yardage three times, and would have done it a fourth time in 2008 if Drew Brees hadn't had such a near-record season.
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Last year Warner was second in completions, completion percentage and yards, and was third in TD's with 30. His passer rating of 96.9 was behind only Pennington and Philip Rivers. In terms of passing yards in a single post-season, Warner is both first and second all-time on that list. He has taken two different teams to the Super Bowl, and has won two MVP awards.
He has also been bothered by injuries quite a bit in recent years, so naturally there is concern going into the year, as he is 38 years old.
That having been said, let's do some comparisons, as they relate to propositions in the BetUS NFL Futures betting odds:
BREES VS WARNER
Drew Brees ~ Saints -2½ TD Passes -140
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals +2½ TD Passes Even
Last year Brees beat out Warner by two touchdown passes. They should both be productive again, although they do it in different ways and with different kinds of personnel. Brees is more of the short-range thrower, while Warner has the dynamic receivers that can get downfield. Maybe it becomes a matter of which quarterback is more likely to get banged up. On that count, I'll give a slight edge to BREES (-2.5, -140)
MCNABB VS WARNER
Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles +6½ TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -6½ TD Passes -120
McNabb has more weapons at his disposal this year than last, and this is a big number to lay. We know that Donovan is capable of putting up big numbers. The question is whether he can do that on a week-to-week basis, and whether HE can stay healthy, because he's had his own history of hurts. Warner's offense, despite a new running threat, is still going to be built for the air attack. WARNER (-6.5, -120)
ROMO VS WARNER
Tony Romo ~ Cowboys -1 TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals +1 TD Passes -120
Again, analyzing these props, to an extent, is contingent upon the quarterbacks being healthy, especially Warner. As far as the weaponry that is at their respective disposals, it isn't really much of a contest. The trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are vastly superior to Roy Williams and whoever else Dallas is going to use. WARNER (+1, -120)
PALMER VS WARNER
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +4½ TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -4½ TD Passes -120
Palmer is another injury concern, and if he misses time, he's going to have no chance to overtake Warner. His offensive line will not protect him as well, and even though some people think the "trade-out" of T.J. Houshmandzadeh for Laveraneus Coles is about even, the presence of T.J. did allow Palmer the flexibility of going to Chad Johnson (oops, Ocho Cinco) for longer routes. Neither team has a running game that they know is going to work, but the efficiency of the Arizona offense is going to be much higher. WARNER (-4.5, -120)
CASSEL VS WARNER
Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +6½ TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -6½ TD Passes -120
Here's an interesting matchup for this proposition, because Cassel is now being coached by Todd Haley, who was Warner's offensive coordinator with Arizona last season. We know that Haley likes to throw the ball, and he will give Cassel every opportunity to do so. There are, however, a few differences here that need to be pointed out. One is that Cassel has, at least at the moment, the better running back (Larry Johnson). On the other hand, there are no Larry Fitzgeralds or Anquan Boldins on the Kansas City roster. Also, Cassel's offensive line might get hum killed. WARNER (-6.5, -120)
P MANNING VS WARNER
Peyton Manning ~ Colts -2 TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals +2 TD Passes -120
You know, this is a close one, because we know that when both guys are healthy, they are capable of topping the 30-mark. This might come down to a question of durability, and because we know that Manning has a history of being injury-free, aided by a tremendous offensive line, we can probably rely on him a bit more. P. MANNING (-2, -120
ROETHLISBERGER VS WARNER
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +4½ TD Passes -130
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -4½ TD Passes -110
All I can say is that if Warner had the same kind of pass protection as Roethlisberger, he would have been beaten into retirement by now. He thanks God he didn't. WARNER (-4.5, -110)
