in NFL Props
NFL Betting on Defenses: Interceptions
by Charles Jay
Interceptions are the kind of thing that turns a game around. So it is not a big surprise to see that some of the teams that ranked highest in this category are teams who went to last year's playoffs. However, it's not all that cut and dried. Many teams who had horrible seasons did very well with their interceptions numbers, while teams who made the post-season or were contenders for a playoff spot had abnormally low numbers.
This makes for a very interesting and often unpredictable dynamic, but we're going to take a shot at predicting the future using BetUS Sportsbook over/under odds on interceptions for selected NFL teams.
The PITTSBURGH STEELERS, and obviously that is a reason they won the Super Bow. The Steelers were tied for sixth in the league with 20 pickoffs, and I guess the opposition felt they had to throw, since they managed only 80 yards a game on the ground.
BetUS has posted an over/under of 20 interceptions on the Ravens this year (priced at -130 for the under and -110 for the over) and I'd like to think they are capable over exceeding that total. Let's put it this way: they didn't have a bad pass rush last season last season, but with their secondary, I have every reason to believe they'll do it. As for the Steelers, they're hovering around the same numbers, and it is a close enough call that I would much rather lay just -105 with the "over" 20 at BetUS than I would in laying -135 on the "under."
Is there an explanation for the CLEVELAND BROWNS, who were second to Baltimore with 23 interceptions but were a God-awful team? Well, the Browns were God-awful chiefly due to their offensive ineptitude, and were actually in the middle of the pack as far as passing yards allowed. I see that the number on Cleveland is pretty high, at 19 (Under -130, Over -110) and with the lack of pass rush, which finished second from the bottom last year, and as they neglected to add impact players that would improve pressure on the passer, you can count on teams throwing against them plenty this year, but in the interception department, things will catch up to them. I would go "under" on this one.
One team that really has to improve itself in this area is the DALLAS COWBOYS. The secondary put together just eight INT's last year, which is a strong reflection on this secondary since they had a league-high 59 sacks, outdistancing the rest by a wide margin. Then again, pressure on the quarterback need not have a direct impact on this stat, as the Browns only had 17 sacks. Pittsburgh had eleven interceptions in 2007, while Dallas had 19. So as you can see, the whole thing is crazy. I think the Cowboys might have an adventurous time in the secondary, as Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick are inexperienced and will get a lot of playing time, and DeMarcus Ware could use someone in Greg Ellis' place to rush the passer. With all those sacks - 105 in two years - they should have been able to create more turnovers. They didn't. Exceeding the total in this prop (over/under at BetUS is 16.5) they would have to be solidly in the league's top ten, based on last year's numbers. I'm going "under" (priced at -120 at BetUS).
Maybe it's not a bad idea to look at teams who are one year removed from having outstanding seasons in this category, and one example of that might be the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, who were incredibly opportunistic in 2007, with 30 interceptions, but dropped to just 15 last year. Part of the reason is easy to plug into logic, as the Chargers got only 28 sacks after losing Shawne Merriman to a season-ending injury. So I guess if we're looking for the Chargers to go OVER the total of 19 that is posted at BetUS (-120 either way), we're hoping that he hasn't endured a season-ending assault charge, as apparently Merriman, doing his best MMA imitation, was applying his best guillotine choke hold to "girlfriend" Tila Tequila, of MySpace and MTV fame.
The worst team in the NFL in 2008 as far as interceptions were concerned was the DETROIT LIONS, who had only four of them all year long. That was abysmal; in fact, only one of those interceptions came from members of the secondary. In stepped new coach Jim Schwartz, who was the defensive coordinator with Tennessee. He brought in another mind - Gunther Cunningham, who was the Chiefs' coordinator for a long time.
They are doing something a little radical - replacing the Tampa 2 system with more man coverage, and that would normally be a major problem if they maintained the existing personnel, but they have added some talent back there that would better fit that system, including corners Anthony Henry, Phillip Buchanon and Eric King (who knows Schwartz's scheme from Tennessee), rookie safety Louis Delmas (a second-round draft choice), along with linebackers Larry Foote and Julian Peterson as well. I'm looking for something of a turnaround here, enough that I'll take a leap of faith and go "over" the 15.5 interception total that has been posted at BetUS (priced at -110).
