in NFL Props
NFL Futures - Eli Manning TD Matchups
by Charles Jay
Eli Manning, like his brother Peyton, came out of school as the #1 over NFL pick. Of course, it wasn't without some drama, as he had more or less refused to play for the San Diego Chargers, precipitating a trade that eventually landed him with the Giants and Philip Rivers in San Diego. Eli went through his growing pains, first sitting behind Kurt Warner with the Giants, then assuming the starting reins with eight games left in his rookie season.
He had a very real problem with throwing interceptions up until last year, tossing 17, 18 and 20 of them in his first three full seasons as a starter. In the 2007 season despite throwing his career-high 20 pickoffs, he led the Giants to the playoffs and had a tremendous playoff run, completing 72 of 119 passes with just one interception and six TD's, and the Giants pulled off the Super Bowl upset, beating the undefeated Patriots, and won the game's MVP award, joining his brother, who had won it the year before.
Last season Eli Manning steadied himself, completing more than 60% for the first time, with 21 TD's and only ten interceptions, and made it to the Pro Bowl for the first time. He may not be in that elite group just yet, but he's making progress.
That having been said, let's do some TD matchups:
E MANNING VS P MANNING
Eli Manning ~ Giants +6½ TD Passes -120
Peyton Manning ~ Colts -6½ TD Passes -120
Ah yes, let's start off with the brother vs. brother matchups. Actually, there haven't really been any comparisons just yet because they would just be ridiculous. Peyton has the big-play wide receiver in Reggie Wayne that Eli does not have, and in a year where Eli is going to have to found some outlets that are dependable (many are vying for playing time), Peyton has created a star out of Darren Clark and will do the same with Anthony Gonzalez. That's just for starters. Peyton will be less affected by the coaching shift than Eli will by losing veterans who could help him, like Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. PEYTON MANNING (-6.5, -120)
E MANNING VS CASSEL
Eli Manning ~ Giants -2½ TD Passes -120
Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +2½ TD Passes -120
We're going to assume that Matt Cassel is going to be alright for the season opener, but he has a ways to go to show us that he is a top-tier quarterback. The test will come this year with the Kansas City Chiefs, who did not click in the pre-season and who just fired offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, which will probably lead to more confusion. Cassel just doesn't have enough around him, and we regard Brandon Jacobs (Eli's every-down back) as being able to provide more effective support than the combustible Larry Johnson. E. MANNING (-2.5, -120)
E MANNING VS PALMER
Eli Manning ~ Giants +1½ TD Passes -120
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals -1½ TD Passes -120
Regardless of how the Bengals do, I am pretty convinced that Palmer, if healthy, will be swinging from his heels from the beginning. He'll also likely have to throw a lot more. This is where Manning and the support he gets from his running game, which is going to be one of the best in the league, actually hurts him. PALMER (-1.5, -120)
E MANNING VS MCNABB
Eli Manning ~ Giants -½ TD Passes -120
Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles +½ TD Passes -120
Well, let's out it this way - as we have said before, it looks like the Eagles are putting it all out on the table when it comes to pumping up their offense. With the firepower and pass protection his team has brought on board, if Donovan McNabb doesn't have more touchdown passes than Eli Manning, he should be ashamed of himself. Then we can trot Rush Limbaugh out and let him have his say. McNABB (+1/2, -120)
E MANNING VS ROMO
Eli Manning ~ Giants +6½ TD Passes -120
Tony Romo ~ Cowboys -6½ TD Passes -120
I know that Romo is perfectly well-equipped to be a good "fantasy" quarterback, but I don't know that laying the number out like this isn't stretching it a bit. I am more concerned about Romo's set of receivers than I am Manning's, because at least the Giants have brought in some rookies with promise. Dallas has remained pretty stagnant, and some of the receivers they have left are injury concerns. E. MANNING (+6.5, -120)
E MANNING VS RIVERS
Eli Manning ~ Giants +5½ TD Passes -120
Philip Rivers ~ Chargers -5½ TD Passes -120
This one is interesting because Manning could have wound up in San Diego instead of Rivers (we still don't really know what his specific objection to the Chargers was). I wonder how much the Chargers wish they had Eli (they probably don't). Rivers is a respectable numbers guy, but maybe last year was an aberration. Rivers had 22 and 21 touchdown passes before breaking out for 34 last season. I think he'll be somewhere in between, and that may not be enough to lay this spread with any level of comfort. E. MANNING (-5.5, -120)
E MANNING VS CUTLER
Eli Manning ~ Giants +2½ TD Passes -120
Jay Cutler ~ Bears -2½ TD Passes -120
Yes, Jay Cutler will spice up the Chicago offense (you've heard this before, right?), but with that set of receivers he has they won't do enough to cooperate. I don't know if we have the wrong favorite here, but I would think this "competition" is close enough that we could make any possible margin. E. MANNING (+2.5, -120)
E MANNING VS WARNER
Eli Manning ~ Giants +5½ TD Passes -120
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -5½ TD Passes -120
Here's an interesting dynamic, as Warner left the Giants to take up residence in Arizona, where he has since experienced a rebirth. Beanie Wells is a rookie running back who has relatively fresh legs, and he may give Warner the kind of ground game he didn't have last year. But will detract enough attention away from the talented trio of wideouts Warner has at his disposal? The other question, and the more important one, is whether he'll be healthy enough to build those numbers up. WARNER (-5.5, -120)
