in NFL Props
NFL Prop Bets - Where will your football team finish?
by Charles Jay
The player additions keep coming, and they may affect the position where NFL teams finish this season. In our pursuit of analyzing this prop, we take a look at six teams and where we may find a little value:
Minnesota Vikings - NFC North Finishing Position
1st +150
2nd +190
3rd +300
4th +600
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Many people are speculating as to whether the acquisition of Brett Favre gives the Vikings an inside track to the NFC's slot in the Super Bowl. First, however, you have to speculate as to whether he gives them a better chance to win the division. Remember that he didn't get the Jets there, and after throwing for 12 TD's with four interceptions in the first four games, he had 10 TD's and 18 INT's the rest of the way, with seven pickoffs in the final three games, as he and the Jets spit the bit. Okay, I admit that the situation is a bit different in Minneapolis; the Vikings had a glaring need and Favre fills it better than the incumbents, for certain. Does he give them a better shot to win the NFC North. Yeah. The +150 at BetUS for first place is fine with us.
Philadelphia Eagles - NFC East Finishing Position
1st +200
2nd +225
3rd +275
4th +300
Others I have talked to disagree, but I sense this as the Eagles' year, and that was before picking up Michael Vick. While teams like the Cowboys and Giants have to address real concerns with their receiver corps, Philadelphia advanced forward with the selection of Jeremy Maclin in the draft. Everything else is pretty solid. A word about Vick - if they were going to hand him the keys, I would say that's a problem, because of the real possibility he is a selfish sociopath (did you hear the phoniness in that 60 Minutes interview). Instead though, he'll be a spot player, and they're likely to use him in special packages, so even if he's a disaster, the damage should be minimal. This is my pick to win the division, and so +200 gives us a competitive price at BetUS.
Miami Dolphins - AFC East Finishing Position
1st +800
2nd +200
3rd +180
4th +180
How many times are you going to see a team who won a division title one season clocking in at 8/1 the next, without having purged its roster? Well, that's the case with Miami, and that's because of two things: (1) the schedule is tougher this year, and (2) Tom Brady is playing quarterback for New England. Maybe there's a (3), which is Terrell Owens on hand in Buffalo to open up that offense. All of those things are valid, but there is just something about the Dolphins, and the way they have played solid fundamental football, that makes me think they shouldn't be counted all the way out. I like the way this team has been handled since Bill Parcells and Tony Sporano have arrived, and yes, in that way I have been proven wrong. As a value play, the +800 at BetUS for a division title isn't so far out of left field.
Dallas Cowboys - NFC East Finishing Position
1st +275
2nd +250
3rd +225
4th +275
This is the way the NFC East shapes up: the Cowboys are the same price to finish first as they are to finish last. I'm willing to take a chance on +275 for last place, especially if they don't find wide receivers who can scare people, and watch as Wade Phillips loses a handle on things. Not that they have to be a bad ballclub to let that happen. Plus, you know, Tony Romo could suddenly fall into depression at mid-season as he regrets breaking up with Jessica Simpson. Does he think he's got his pick of celebrity babes? Not if he fumbles 13 times in 13 games again.
Oakland Raiders - AFC West Finishing Position
1st +1000
2nd +275
3rd +200
4th +120
I'm thinking that the AFC West is going to be wide open after the Chargers, who are likely to win the thing. That means, why not Oakland? From these numbers they seem to be the favorites to finish last, and I don't know that's going to happen, especially with impending disaster in Kansas City. I really do think there is a chance that the team turns to Jeff Garcia, who has the kind of veteran presence that has taken limited offenses into the playoffs. If he doesn't get a chance, it's probably because JeMarcus Russell would have started to do the job. As you have probably read lately, the Raider coaching staff is certainly "fighting mad" about their finish last year. Yeah, we would be willing to throw a little down on the +275 at BetUS for second place.
Denver Broncos - AFC West Finishing Position
1st +450
2nd +175
3rd +175
4th +300
Okay, Denver's personnel doesn't seem to be all that terrible, particularly on offense. They have Knowshon Moreno coming in to bolster the rushing attack, and of course the wide receivers are first-rate. But one of those receivers - Brandon Marshall - wants out; there is no reason to believe the defense will be much better than last year's horrible unit, and if you caught that performance of Kyle Orton from the pre-season opener against San Francisco (all three interceptions worth) you'd be running after that fourth-place number (+300 at BetUS).
