in NFL Props
NFL Prop Betting - NFL Teams to MISS the Playoffs
by Charles Jay
BETTING ON TEAMS TO COME UP SHORT
In exploring the chances of teams NOT making the playoffs, we're going to take a look at the numbers first. In doing so, remember that when the sportsbook is allowing you to TAKE a price, it is on a team that is determined to be likely to make the playoffs. When you have to LAY a price, it is on teams that have a very reasonable chance of missing the playoffs. :
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BetUS Sportsbook NFL Odds:
To Miss NFL Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers +275
New England Patriots +400
Dallas Cowboys -125
New York Giants +125
Indianapolis Colts +135
San Diego Chargers +350
Baltimore Ravens +110
Philadelphia Eagles +125
New Orleans Saints -140
Minnesota Vikings +125
Carolina Panthers -150
Tennessee Titans -120
Atlanta Falcons -150
Green Bay Packers -155
Denver Broncos -350
Jacksonville Jaguars -225
Arizona Cardinals -120
New York Jets -350
Miami Dolphins -400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -450
Buffalo Bills -400
Chicago Bears -120
Washington Redskins -250
Seattle Seahawks -175
Houston Texans -190
San Francisco 49ers -200
Cleveland Browns -600
Oakland Raiders -700
Cincinnati Bengals -450
St Louis Rams -600
Detroit Lions -1200
Kansas City Chiefs -450
We're going to outline six teams we would bet on with this prop:
NEW YORK JETS (-350 at BetUS) -- I am perfectly willing to lay this price with a rookie quarterback (Mark Sanchez) at the helm. The feats accomplished by Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco last season are not the type of thing that is going to happen every year, and for it to happen with a quarterback who left college early (with only one full year of starting) would be rare indeed. Flacco was working with a tremendous defense, one put together by current Jets' coach Rex Ryan, who is just installing that in New York. Also, Matt Ryan was working with a great running game, and while the Jets may be able to have some success with the trio of Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, I don't know that this running game can't be overplayed, especially since Sanchez isn't working with threatening wide receivers. Besides, I think Miami is going to be a better team in this division.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-450 at BetUS) -- The situation with either Byron Leftwich or Luke McCown is eventually going to become intolerable, to the point where coach Raheem Morris, who can at least get a pass for his first season, will do what he's wanted to do from the start, which is put first-round draft pick Josh Freeman in as the regular. Freeman won't lead the Bucs to a playoff spot. He is way too raw, but he's got to get experience. In a competitive division, Tampa Bay will be the odd team out of contention.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-190 at BetUS) -- It is tough to say that Houston, which has gone 8-8 the last two years, can take the next step, even with Pro Bowl receivers in Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Sure, the running game is there, but Matt Schaub seems brittle and who knows what to expect from backups Rex Grossman or Dan Orlovsky. The defense has some standouts and has been building gradually, but it's not being built fast enough. This is a tough enough division to break into the top three, much less the top two.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-200 at BetUS) -- Granted, the Niners are not in a tough division, but I wouldn't bet on major progress from them. Unless Alex Smith suddenly starts to play like a #1 draft choice or Shawn Hill shows something no one else has seen during his journeyman career, there is going to be a void at the quarterback position. Michael Crabtree may not even sign a contract. I know that coach Mike Singletary is committed to making this team very imposing on the ground, but that ground game hinges on the health of Frank Gore, who is not entirely dependable from an injury standpoint. If it's just Glen Coffee back there, it suddenly becomes a lot more ordinary.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-450 at BetUS) -- The Chiefs figure they have a quarterback of the future in Matt Cassel. Maybe that's the case, but it is clear that they are putting together a long-range plan rather than something designed to win this year. Otherwise they wouldn't have traded Tony Gonzalez. Larry Johnson is a wild card. Jamaal Charles is probably not a full-timer. The defensive line has potential, but Glenn Dorsey will have to work out better than last year. The offensive line is at best a work in progress. This is a team that should be happy if it can just win a couple more games.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (-600 at BetUS) -- I don't see the Rams getting it done. There are offensive line issues that are not settled. Quarterback Marc Bulger may be a little gun-shy by now. This team is relying an awful lot on Steven Jackson, and though he's a great player, can he stay healthy? There is not enough receiving talent, and the defense is getting old in critical spots. Where's the pass rush? Maybe you think Chris Long is going to become an All-Pro in his second season?
