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NFL Props - Betting the Long Shot to Run the Most Yards
Unlike college football, where wide receiver sets are becoming all he rage, NFL betting fans know one truth, you can’t win on the pro level without a fantastic defense and a great rushing game.
Just ask the Baltimore Ravens who were a game away from the Super Bowl even though they started a rookie quarterback in 2008. They had Le’Ron McClain bulldozing his way in the playoffs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers? How about Willie Parker. The Arizona Cardinals? Well they’re a bit of an exception. But, of course, there was the fourth team with a chance at the championship, the Philadelphia Eagles. Their entire offense rested on the shoulders of running back Brian Westbrook.
Now that preseason is in its second week, it’s time to revisit this great wager and to get those bets down before the first pre-season game.
Let’s take a look at the best wagering interests to lead the NFL in rushing yards at the end of the 2009 NFL Season.
Top Runnigback Contenders
- Steve Slaton, Houston Texans, +1400 - - Slaton was a rookie last year and often times rookies don’t come back nearly as good in their second season, but Slaton no doubt is the best offensive weapon that the Texans have and because of that will be the featured player, not just running back, but player in the Houston Texan’s offense. He will get a ton of carries and should roll to the rushing title if he can stay healthy.
- Matt Forte, Chicago Bears, +2500 - - Here’s another second year guy that could prove unstoppable during the season. Forte was impressive as a rookie and no doubt will be more effective as the Bears signed quarterback Jay Cutler. With Cutler throwing, teams can’t key in on Forte. That means that the Bears running back should find wider holes to rush through. He’s a dynamite wager to consider in the Sportsbook at those odds.
- Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants, +2000 - - Okay, so everybody’s saying that the Giant’s can’t win the big one because they don’t have a wide receiver. How about a massive offensive line and one of the best running backs in the NFL? If Jacobs stays healthy, then he gets the bulk of the carries as Derrick Ward, his back-up the past two seasons, has gone on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Giants are still plenty dangerous in the run game and Jacobs is their guy.
- Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers, +2000 - - Gamblers shouldn’t sleep on Grant who missed the pre-season in 2008 and will go into 2009 fully healed and rested. Grant is an imposing player and Coach Mike McCarthy loves to use the running back to open up the passing game. This guy could see a huge bounce back year in 2009.
- Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars, +2000 - - Fred Taylor is in New England which means that M.J.D. will get the bulk of the carries in 2009. The offensive line should be better than it was last year and nobody works as hard as Jones-Drew on the off-season. He’s a player to consider when betting the futures.
Chances Don’t Justify the Odds
- Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings, +225 - - Sure, it’s an easy schedule but they don’t have any real wide receiver threats, and suspect play-calling makes A.P. a serious underlay to lead the league in rushing this year at those odds in the sportsbook. Peterson has been overused already. It’s only a matter of time before an injury forces him to the bench. The fact that he has to get 30 carries a game means that the time could be much sooner than people think. He can lead the league in rushing but at those odds, I’m willing to take a stand against him.
- De’Angelo Williams, Carolina Panthers, +800 - - Again, the odds just don’t justify a bet. Williams is a strong candidate to lead the NFC South in rushing, but he’s nowhere close to leading the NFC Conference or the NFL in rushing. Why? Jonathan Stewart, last year’s #1 pick, figures to get more carries this year.
- LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers, +1400 - - With Darren Sproles splitting time with him, the days of Tomlinson carrying the Chargers are over. Also, the wear on his body has lead to the tear on his body. I love L.T., but I don’t love him at 14 to 1.
- Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons, +450 - - The Falcons had a cake-walk schedule last year. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sporting a decent defense, the Panthers sporting a good defense, and the Saints sporting a much improved defense, Turner could have trouble in his own division. Also, Atlanta could end up passing more with tight-end Tony Gonzalez arriving from K.C.
- Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins, +1200 - - He just won’t be able to stay healthy. That’s sort of the bottom line with Portis. Yes, he is very, very good when he stays healthy, but he won’t stay healthy, and the ‘Skins are just a mess right now.
- Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams, +1600 - - Sure, new Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo says that he’s going to pound the football. Yes, Jackson is built for that, but nobody can run in the NFL if there isn’t an offensive line to open holes up for you. St. Louis has two new starters on the O-Line to go with two holdovers that sucked it up last year.
Top Long Shots
- Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks, +5000 - - Jones needs to first stay healthy and second hope that Matt Hasslebeck returns to Pro-Bowl form. If those two things happen, then Jones could have a huge season because the NFC West is still putrid defensively.
- Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +5000 - - The offensive line is plenty good enough and Ward showed signs of brilliance in 2008 when backing up Brandon Jacobs. The problem is at quarterback where the Bucs really don’t have one. Still, at 50 to 1, he has to be considered because his back-up, Cadillac Williams, won’t challenge for any carries after coming off of another knee injury.
- Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals, +8000 - - This is the best bet on the board right now as nobody in Cincinnati will challenge the former head-case that is Cedric Benson. Here’s a stat the bettors should pay attention to, when Cedric Benson carried the ball at least 20 times last year, the Cincinnati Bengals were 4-0-1.
