in NFL Props
NFL QB Props - Ben Roethlisberger vs. The World
by Charles Jay
BIG BEN VS. THE WORLD
NFL Football Futures Betting
As a handicapper, I recall "latching on" to Ben Roethlisberger when he was a redshirt freshman playing for Miami of Ohio in the Mid American Conference in 2001.
Roethlisberger had thrown for 54 TD's and 4041 yards in his one season as a high school quarterback. That had gotten teams like Ohio State very interested in him, though he wound up settling for the MAC.
I wrote this excerpt as part of my analysis of a September 22, 2001 game against hated rival Cincinnati:
"Sacks and turnovers plagued Miami in last year's game, but despite the loss of many lettermen, there are signs of major improvement with this year's edition. Though backup QB Guidugli put a solid claim on Cincy's starting job in last outing, Miami's 6'5" Ben Roethlisberger (recruited heavily by Ohio State, among others) is a prospect to watch."
Later in the season, I wrote this, as Miami prepared to play Bowling Green:
"Bowling Green has been burned by QB's Byron Leftwich and Jeff Welsh in losses to Marshall and Western Michigan, respectively. And there's no one better in the MAC right now than Red Hawk signal-caller Roethlisberger (63%, 19 TD's), who could be starting at almost any Big 10 school, and who is easily the biggest factor in this game."
I went with Miami of Ohio week after week, and kept going with them. In Roethlisberger's first season they were 7-5 ATS, and in his junior year they covered 10 of 13, including a rout of Louisville in the GMAC. It had gotten to the point where when Big Ben took the Redhawk offense on a drive, they were so hard to stop that it literally looked like they were traveling downhill. Roethlisberger threw for 4486 yards and 37 TD's that year, then turned pro, where he was taken 11th overall by Pittsburgh.
As a rookie, Roethlisberger did something rare in that he stepped in and became a standout performer almost immediately. In fact, he won his first 14 starts in the NFL. In his career he has won a rookie of the year award, two Super Bowls, played in a Pro Bowl, and has become known as a clutch performer and the quintessential blood-and-guts quarterback.
However, he is not exactly a "fantasy" value. His 3513 yards in 2006 are his career high, and though he threw for 32 touchdowns in 2007, that is 14 more than he has thrown in any other year. This is something to keep in mind as he is playing with a team whose culture is to establish a running attack first. Two things you have to expect about Roethlisberger are that he is going to throw his share of interceptions (49 in the last three years) and will get sacked quite a lot. With the job the Steelers' offensive line usually does in pass protection, he is generally lucky that his frame is big enough (6'5" and 240-plus) that he can sometimes muscle his way from opposing pass rushers.
This obviously has an influence as I analyze him head-to-head against other passers in these BetUS propositions (Remember that both players in these props must start their team’s first regular season game for action):
BRADY VS ROETHLISBERGER
Tom Brady ~ Patriots -4½ TD Passes -135
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +4½ TD Passes -105
Brady's touchdown passes went from 24 in 2006 to a record 50 in 2007. If he is healthy I can see something in the neighborhood of 30 from him, with the possibility of a lot more. That is going to beat Roethlisberger, who probably isn't going to have more than 24. BRADY (-4.5, -135)
BREES VS ROETHLISBERGER
Drew Brees ~ Saints -7½ TD Passes -120
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +7½ TD Passes -120
I'm not so sure Brees is going to match last year's 36 TD's, or get within six of it. His 5069 yards was most likely a one-time event, but he is going to be effective with better and healthier receivers. I'm giving him the edge, but it's not a huge play. BREES (-7.5, -120)
E MANNING VS ROETHLISBERGER
Eli Manning ~ Giants +1 TD Passes -120
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers -1 TD Passes -120
Eli Manning is going to make do with a set of receivers that are not monsters by any stretch, unless the rookies come up big. He could probably do 22 or 23, but perhaps Roethlisberger has more upside. ROETHLISBERGER (-1, -120)
P MANNING VS ROETHLISBERGER
Peyton Manning ~ Colts -6½ TD Passes -120
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +6½ TD Passes -120
Peyton Manning is someone who will likely not be affected that much by the change in coaches and coordinators, or the departure of Marvin Harrison. He is going to adapt to whatever is around him. I could easily see him having a double-digit margin in this one. P. MANNING (-6.5, -120)
PALMER VS ROETHLISBERGER
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +1 TD Passes -120
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers -1 TD Passes -120
Remember that Roethlisberger has had more than 18 TD's just once. Carson Palmer has the ability to throw a lot of touchdown passes, and has done so when healthy. He will be under-supported by his running game, and his Bengals were able to replace T.J., Houshmandzadeh with Laveraneus Coles, and have brought in rookies to open things up a little more. PALMER (+1, -120)
ROETHLISBERGER VS MCNABB
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers -2½ TD Passes -120
Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles +2½ TD Passes -120
Over the last three years, McNabb has averaged only 20 TD passes, but his front office has added some weapons he can take advantage of, including Jeremy Macline. DeSean Jackson will be better this year, and as always, they throw to the guys in the backfield. This one may not even be close. McNABB (+2.5, -120)
ROETHLISBERGER VS CUTLER
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +1 TD Passes -120
Jay Cutler ~ Bears -1 TD Passes -120
Jay Cutler had 25 touchdowns for Denver last year, and had to work without a running game most of the time. This year I think he suffers until Chicago goes out and gets some real wide receivers for him to work with, so Big Ben has a big chance. ROETHLISBERGER (+1, -120)
ROETHLISBERGER VS ROMO
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +4½ TD Passes -120
Tony Romo ~ Cowboys -4½ TD Passes -120
Romo's big year was 36 TD's in 2007. He obviously can put up the numbers, but what will he do without Terrell Owens? My guess is that he will still get his numbers, but Big Ben will go farther in the playoffs. Well, Ben will GO to the playoffs, while Romo may be watching at home. ROMO (-4.5, -120)
ROETHLISBERGER VS RODGERS
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +4½ TD Passes -120
Aaron Rodgers ~ Packers -4½ TD Passes -120
Aaron Rodgers threw for over 4000 yards and 28 TD's in his first season as a starter last year. He may not be protected much better than Roethlisberger, but he has receivers who are a little better running with the football. RODGERS (-4.5, -120)
ROETHLISBERGER VS RYAN
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers -2 TD Passes -120
Matt Ryan ~ Falcons +2 TD Passes -120
Ryan completed 61% last season, for 16 touchdowns. One would expect those numbers to improve, but how much? Remember, Atlanta is a team that will rely on the running game primarily. Then again, Ryan showed a lot of poise in his rookie season and should progress, especially with Tony Gonzalez coming on board for those red zone situations. RYAN (+2, -120)
ROETHLISBERGER VS WARNER
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers +4½ TD Passes -130
Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -4½ TD Passes -110
Obviously the concerns with Warner are his advanced age (he'll be 38) and his ability to stay healthy for the whole season, not to mention the fact that coach Ken Whisenhunt may want to run the ball a lot more. Chris Wells could have a big rookie year, but keep in mind that Warner has some of the best receivers in the game and good weather to work in at home. WARNER (-4.5, -110)
