in NFL Props
Super Bowl 2010 Proposition Bets: Peyton Manning
by Sean Rowsome
My favorite part of Super Bowl Sunday are the Proposition Bets. Any mook can pick a winner and a loser. And this year, with the Vegas Line being so close at in and around 4 1/2 points, it is essentially a game of straight up pick 'em. Real men bet props. Here are a few to look at when betting the Super Bowl this Sunday.
Peyton Manning total passing yards
The over under on this is 310 1/2 yards. Betting the over is playing -120 on the Moneyline and betting the under is -110. The Saints do not have the greatest defensive line in the NFL, but their secondary is among the best in football.
Look for Manning to use a lot of short routes to stay in front of them. This will create a lot of passing, but not a lot of yards. Take the under.
Manning total pass attempts (over / under 37 1/2)
This is a 50 / 50 proposition bet, and how you bet on this will be determined largely on how often you think the Colts will go-to-ground during the Super Bowl.
If Manning can expose a weakness in the Saints cover 1 and cover 2 defense on downs 2 and 3 early, then he will feel comfortable putting the ball in the air.
If the Saints can shut down the pass early, the Colts will use Joseph Addai more to soften them up and Manning will not get to 37. This is Peyton Manning. If there is a weakness (and there is) he will find it. Take the over playing -115 on the Moneyline.
Manning total completions (over / under 25 1/2)
Betting this prop will have a lot to do with how you bet the previous proposition. Manning's regular season completion rate is at 68.8%. The numbers tell me that is you have him chucking 38 times he will complete about 27 and you should take the over at -120. If you disagree with my assertion on the total pass attempts, then you should disagree with me on the prop bet and take the under for -110.
Manning total TD passes (over / under 2 1/2)
If you believe the Vegas Lines, the over under for the Super Bowl is 56 1/2 total points. That is a lot of scoring for a championship game. Most people are assuming that Indy is going to bite off 31 points out of that pie. Mathematically that would mean that Manning's arm would account for 21 of the ten (assuming conversions). That leaves ten points for 'other'. Basically a running TD and a field goal. I think Manning will get two, and the ground will get two. Numbers don't lie. You can't fight science. Take the under for -105 on the Moneyline.
Manning longest completion (O/U 39 1/2)
The New Orleans Saints until the end of the season had one of the most underrated secondary's in football. One of the reasons is, that there are only so many minutes or column inches, and that space was used to talk about the offense. A 40 yard completion is a tough ask with a swiss cheese secondary as so many things have to go your way.
This proposition bet hinges on the secondary of the Saints keeping the Colts wide receivers in front of them...which they will. Either proposition is playing at -115 on the Moneyline. Take the under.
Manning total rush attempts (O/U 1 1/2)
He has not done this a lot (19 times), and when he has, it has not worked out well (-13 yards total). When Manning runs it resembles an 80 year old man trying to escape from a nursing home. It is not a proposition that he enjoys, and he is really bad at it. Have I mentioned that already? With that said, he is going to have to. He will have time in the pocket, but the Saints secondary is going to be blanketing the Colts wide receivers like mayonnaise on a white man’s sandwich. The lack of Saints defensive line pressure will open up holes, and Manning will go to ground at least twice. He will hesitate (as he does) and he will lose yards (as he does), but take the over on this Prop Bet for +220.
Will Peyton Manning throw an interception?
No. At least I do not think so. He will throw it away first. We are talking about a man that is more cautious with the football then a mother is sending her son to Catholic overnight camp. He protects possession. That is what he does. He only has 16 on the year, and I do not see him giving it up on Sunday. He will be more cautious and protective than usual for the Super Bowl. This Prop Bet is playing -140 for a yes and +110 for a no on the Moneyline.
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