The Green Bay Packers are the favorite heading into Sunday's showdown with Pittsburgh, but the big question on fans of Super Bowl XLV proposition bets is who will score first for Green Bay.
This is a tough question to answer but looking at the trends heading in can make a big difference.
In examining Green Bay's schedule, a pattern emerges regarding the scorer of the first TD of the game for the NFC North powerhouse.
Time for a discussion and picks regarding the best betting values going into Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers, 6:30 pm ET, Sunday.
Super Bowl XLV in Dallas
The Packers have had a wide variety of players from various positions score their first TD of the game during the course of this year.
They started out with TD's by Donald Driver, Brandon Jackson via the run, Greg Jennings, Driver again, Donald Lee, then Driver.
The pattern of passing TD's continued for much of the year, with Aaron Rodgers scoring two on the ground of his own.
The Super Bowl XLV proposition bet golden rule heading into this one is that the passing TD is much more likely coming into the game. Pittsburgh has a good pass rush and a solid pass defense but Green Bay's bread and butter is the passing game.
Jackson is probably less likely to score than Rodgers on the ground in this one unless the Pack sees something odd on film giving them confidence to run against the mass wall of humanity that is the Steelers' rush defense.
Here are the best picks for Packers to score the first TD:
Aaron Rodgers: At +700 odds, Rodgers is a solid bet to score the first TD on the ground. That's because Pittsburgh is not a team to run north/south and Rodgers is an underrated athlete to say the least.
With all the preparation going into stopping the pass, Rodgers' ability to run it in on the bootleg is worth throwing a little cash on in the Super Bowl XLV proposition bets department.
Andrew Quarless: At +1000 odds, Quarless out of Penn State is an athletic tight end who could find a seam against a Pittsburgh linebacking corps that is strong but not the best in coverage. The Pack threw multiple game-first TD's to multiple TE targets this year.
Brandon Jackson: Okay, so he's a running back and Green Bay doesn't run a whole lot of TD's in. But he also has a game-first receiving touchdown this year and he could get a favorable matchup in the passing game making him a solid Super Bowl XLV proposition bet at +1200 odds.
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