in NFL Props
The Prodigal Son Returns - Tom Brady Props vs. The Best in the League
by Charles Jay
BRADY VS. THE BEST
One of the unknown factors that make forecasting the NFL season so intriguing involves the status of Tom Brady of the New England Patriots, who went down with a knee injury in he first game of last season and was lost for the rest of the year. With backup Matt Cassel taking the reins, the Pats nearly made the playoffs, but with Brady back in action, they are looking for much better results; in fact, anything less than an AFC title will unquestionably be a disappointment. In Brady's last full season he threw for 50 touchdown passes, an NFL record. With the same 1-2 receiving duo still around (Randy Moss, Wes Welker) and some new faces, including Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis, how productive can Brady be this year? More importantly, for the purposes of our discussion today, how does he stack up against some of the other outstanding quarterbacks in the league?
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Remember that in each of these matchups, both players must start teams 1st regular season game for action.
BRADY VS BREES
Tom Brady ~ Patriots +1 TD Passes -120
Drew Brees ~ Saints -1 TD Passes -120
The one thing you know about the Saints is that Brees is going to be winging it. Brees nearly broke the NFL record for most yards in a season, and may have been able to do it in the season finale if his team had set it up that way. What's even more impressive is that Brees was super-productive regardless of who he had in the lineup catching passes, so he is a playmaker, without question. One of the interesting things about Brady's career is that you look at it and see that he had that 50-TD season, but his next highest total after that is 28, so he is only going to get into the high 30s if Bill Belichick decides he wants to eschew the run and go pass-happy as he did in that undefeated regular season of 2007. Hey, maybe that will happen, but I think he would like to see some balance. I think simply because of what the two guys are going to be asked to do, Brees may have more upside. BREES (-1, -120)
BRADY VS P MANNING
Tom Brady ~ Patriots +2 TD Passes -120
Peyton Manning ~ Colts -2 TD Passes -120
Peyton Manning has been a pro for eleven years, and he has passed for 4000 yards in all but two of them. Obviously he set a record with 48 touchdown passes in 2004, but like Brady, that was not indicative of the stats he has posted on a regular basis. For Manning, however, it is nothing to top 30 TD's, and according to just about everyone you talk to, you'll hear that even though he had tremendous trust in Tony Dungy, it won't make that much difference that Jim Caldwell is at the helm, because after all, Peyton Manning is as close to a coach on the field as there is in the NFL. The only question I see is whether the Colts, and Manning, will decide they want to play a little more ball control this season. Again, at this point Manning is more reliable as a commodity. MANNING (-2, -120)
BRADY VS CASSEL
Tom Brady ~ Patriots -5½ TD Passes -140
Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +5½ TD Passes Ev
You know, if Brady was aware that this particular proposition existed (and who knows - he might), he would not let Matt Cassel beat him. You have to congratulate Cassel on stepping in and taking the reins from Brady last season, having that 400-yard game and almost leading the Pats into the post-season. This year he'll have every opportunity to throw the ball all over the field, but it will be with a questionable offensive line and without Tony Gonzalez, who is off to Atlanta. There will be plenty of exercise in futility for him. I'll count on Brady to be operating with the more efficient offense and with a defense that will put New England in better field position. BRADY (-5.5, -140)
BRADY VS PALMER
Tom Brady ~ Patriots -4½ TD Passes -120
Carson Palmer ~ Bengals +4½ TD Passes -120
All of us know what kind of capability Carson Palmer has. Like Brady, however, Palmer is coming off an injury, and like Cassel, he is playing with a team that could be very limited (although improvement is much more possible with the Bengals). I know what kind of connection Brady has with Moss and Welker; Palmer can work some magic with Chad Ocho Cinco (or whatever) but everything else is a question mark. BRADY (-4.5, -120)
BRADY VS MCNABB
Tom Brady ~ Patriots -5½ TD Passes -120
Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles +5½ TD Passes -120
McNabb is a guy who is often injured, so that has to factor into the equation here. His high in TD passes was 31 in 2004. Last year he had 23 TD passes. My feeling is that Andy Reid and the Eagles are going to try to do this year what Brady and the Pats did two seasons ago, which is to ruin a very high-octane passing attack. Whether McNabb is truly up to it or not is a legitimate question. Also, with a rookie (Jeremy Maclin) and second-year man (DeSean Jackson) destined to play key roles in their passing attack, I don't know that he has what Brady possesses. BRADY (-5.5, -120)
BRADY VS CUTLER
Tom Brady ~ Patriots -3½ TD Passes -130
Jay Cutler ~ Bears +3½ TD Passes -110
Jay Cutler is clearly a quarterback for whom the best is yet to come. But for that to happen the Chicago Bears are going to have to get some better receivers around him. Yes, I know he will find plenty of connections with tight end Greg Olson, and Matt Forte is going to be a fine option out of the backfield. However, I am not so confident in Devin Hester's ability to baffle secondaries on a weekly basis as the #1 wideout, and the Bears are thin beyond that. Let's put it this way - there's nobody that quite compares to Brandon Marshall or Eddie Royal. BRADY (-3.5, -130)
BRADY VS ROMO
Tom Brady ~ Patriots -1½ TD Passes -120
Tony Romo ~ Cowboys +1½ TD Passes -120
Romo may have something of the same problem as Cutler, though not to as great a degree. Letting Terrell Owens go was significant, because as much of a cancer that guy could be in the locker room (Not the BetUS Locker Room, mind you) he did know how to find the end zone. Owens has 139 TD catches in his career, and he had 38 for Dallas in three years. Romo has Roy Williams, Jason Witten and a bunch if so-so guys. So unless they decide to split Felix Jones outside and let him be their Devin Hester, I'm looking at Brady to have more upside. BRADY (-1.5, -120)
