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2008 Election Political Betting – Funny Hillary Feeling

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BetUS bet on politics are still speculating about who the running mate for Barack Obama will be, now that Hillary Clinton appears to be ready to suspend her campaign and endorse Obama on the weekend. We're going to give you the whole rundown on that - and more - as BetUS focuses on the upcoming election.

First, let's take a look at the latest odds as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

2008 Election Winning Party

DEMOCRATS -180

REPUBLICANS +140

ANY OTHER PARTY +50000

Take a snapshot of that, because you're going to see some movement as soon as one or the other of the so-called "major" candidates makes a decision about a running mate. In my opinion, if Barack Obama names Hillary Clinton to his ticket, it greatly increases their chances of winning the general election, although there are many reasons Obama is being given - perhaps by those in the "new" Democratic establishment - as to why he shouldn't choose her. For one thing, she might be overbearing in a sense, not necessarily in the campaign itself but in a prospective Obama administration. Obama is probably not looking for a vice-president who wants to take as active a role as Dick Cheney has. And there are a lot of movers and shakers in the party who want to wrest control, once and for all, from the Clintons, and you don't do that by trying to lean on Hillary to win an election, in the hope that she will bring her supporters over.

Democratic Ticket Specials

Obama to run with Clinton as VP +150

Clinton to run with Obama as VP +5000

Obama to run with Oprah as VP +50000

The above prop is kind of tongue-in-cheek, although the top of that prop corresponds with the prop below, which makes Hillary a 3/2, or +150 choice, to be the running mate.

Democratic Vice President Candidate

Hillary Clinton +150

Barack Obama +25000

John Edwards +550

Bill Richardson +900

Ted Strickland +900

Dennis Kucinich +5000

Bill Clinton +25000

Kathleen Sebelius +700

Evan Bayh +2500

Wesley Clark +2000

Harold Ford Jr +5000

Joseph Biden +2500

Christopher Dodd +3000

Jim Webb +400

Michael Bloomberg +2000

Al Gore +1800

Mark Warner +1800

Anthony Zinni +2500

Bill Nelson +2500

There are some names not on this list who are starting to be mentioned. On MSNBC's "Road to the White House," the panel seemed to think former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia might be a good choice because of his overall experience and his background in foreign policy. Clark (+2000 in the BetUS entertainment odds) may fit in there as well, although I don’t hear him being mentioned. Another name not on this list who should be is Claire McCaskill, the recently-elected U.S. Senator from Missouri, who is getting attention, along with Kathleen Sebelius (+700 at BetUS), because she's a woman, but I wonder how many non-Democrats are ready to vote for a couple of senators with only two years' experience. I would consider Evan Bayh (+2500 at BetUS) to be a contender, and Joe Biden (+2500 at BetUS) to a lesser degree, and of course Bill Richardson, at +900 in the BetUS political betting odds, is regarded by many as a solid pick.

But I get this sneaking suspicion. You know, everybody has been asking, "What does Hillary want?" When all chance of victory was gone, she finally agreed to endorse Obama. But remember, she just "suspended" her campaign. She does not want to let those supporters loose just yet. She wants to have a meeting with Obama to discuss things. Democratic leaders, including her husband, have suggested she would be an ideal running mate. Yes, I do believe she wants to be the vice-presidential candidate

Keep in mind that she stayed in all the way to the end to seemingly gather as many delegates as possible. And she appears to want to get a decision from Obama on this as soon as possible. But Obama does not want to be in any hurry. Call me crazy, but I think it's quite possible that she is giving Obama the opportunity to hand the second spot on the ticket over to her, to force a "yes" or "no" answer from him, and if he doesn't take her on, she is fully prepared, if need be, to make an end run; that is, to take that VP nomination to a vote on the floor at the convention. When the presidential nominee names a running mate, it is not necessarily a rubber stamp, although it has customarily turned out that way. But this primary season has not followed custom, at least any custom we have seen recently. The vice-presidential nominee still has to be nominated by the convention, and that takes a vote, as ceremonial as it may have been in the past. Clinton has close to one-half of the elected delegates. In other words, she has leverage. It may not be that difficult for her to lobby some delegates who are committed to Obama but amenable to having her as the running mate. They may do so as a compromise, and for the sake of not blowing the party wide-open. And the super-delegates are very much in play for a move like this. Clinton, having "given" a little on her end by way of this weekend's concession/endorsement, might just be looking for that quick decision from Obama so she would have time to marshall her forces and organize for this push.

It WILL be interesting.

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(Charles Jay was the 2004 presidential candidate of the Personal Choice Party, and is also the 2008 nominee. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)