Fourth of July Classic - The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
by Charles Jay
Entertainment Props Betting
WHAT’S FOR LUNCH ON THE FOURTH OF JULY?
Here's the situation:
BetUS Sportsbook Hot Dog Odds
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
July 4-- Coney Island
Winner’s Total
UNDER 62.5 Hot Dogs -130
OVER 62.5 Hot Dogs -110
Gluttony is good.
That's what Gordon Gekko said in "Wall Street," isn't it?
Well, that's what has sprung the International Federation of Competitive Eating (IFOCE), which is every bit as comprehensive in its event schedule as the PGA Tour, and which has even produced a "reality" show (as if five or more hot dogs per minute didn't offer enough reality) on the Fox Reality Network.
If you can stuff yourself with hot dogs for ten minutes on a continuous basis, you may have what it takes to become an "eating athlete" and compete. Not so fast, though. The IFOCE Nathan's International July Fourth Hot Dog Eating Contest, as it is now known, is in its 93rd year, is not something where you can just walk in off the street and enter, and in that way it differs from, say, the World Series of Poker.
Rather, it is a little more like the U.S. Open in golf. You must be either the defending champ, the winner of a regional qualifying tournament, a "wildcard" qualifier, or a special invitee of the IFOCE. Hey, they got standards.
I wish it was maybe a little more like the Masters, where all the former champions are invited back, year after year.
Could you imagine some 70-year-old stuffing hot dogs down his throat, literally risking physical breakdown?
Now THAT'S entertainment!
I guess some safety precautions have been instituted, because while the contest had lasted 12 minutes for years, last year it was lowered to ten minutes, where it will presumably stay. That's sort of like the way it was in boxing, where championship fights were shortened from the traditional fifteen rounds to the current limit of twelve. Like boxing, the winner will also receive a belt (we're not making this up folks) which is called, appropriately, the Mustard Belt. It is a good thing the belt is adjustable.
In 1916, the first year of the contest, the winner ate 13 hot dogs in ten minutes. Let's just say the athlete has "evolved" since then. In 2007, Joey "Jaws" Chestnut became the Roger Maris of hot dogs, I suppose, by downing 66, which broke a record that had been set the year before by perennial winner Takeru Kobayashi, who must be considered the sport's "Babe Ruth," or, with respect to his Japanese heritage, it's Sadaharu Oh.
If the ten-minute limit remains in effect, Chestnut's record could conceivably last forever. Whether that would make him the Barry Bonds of the IFOCE, that's a matter of perception (but we enjoy making the analogies). It is unknown whether steroids could aid a competitor; that is something I'll have to get clarification on.
In looking at the proposition before us, we'd have to believe that the winner, whoever that is, will eat four more hot dogs than last year in the allotted time to come away with the "Over." The winning total made a jump from 49 to 54 in 2006, and when Kobayashi burst onto the scene in 2001 he destroyed the previous record, eating 50 hot dogs compared with 25-1/8 the year before, but there has been no guarantee that totals increase from year to year. In 2007 Chestnut had 66, which comes out to 5.5 per minute. Last year he had 59, which showed better productivity, at 5.9 per minute. I realize that the technique is constantly getting better, but he'd have to eat almost a half a dog more per minute to get to 63, and I think that's a bit too much. I like the UNDER, at -130 in the BetUS Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Odds.
As for the tummy-to-tummy matchup, the Charles Jay Line would have Chestnut a -130 favorite, not as big a favorite as some people have him, with Kobayashi at +110 (and the "field" at 4/1). I agree that the tide is shifting toward this becoming the Chestnut Era, but you just can't count out a guy who set the standard for the sport by winning the event six years in a row.
Indeed, if a pizza-eating contest held in late May in Los Angeles was any indication, Kobayashi is not going quietly. He scoffed down 5-1/2 P'Zones supplied by Pizza Hut to edge out Chestnut, who was absolutely despondent about it.
It should be mentioned that in last year's contest, Chestnut and Kobayashi tied with that 59-dog total at the end of regulation time (far outdistancing the rest of the field), which forced the IFOCE's own version of a sudden death playoff (we hope that never takes on a literal meaning) . Chestnut then inhaled his plate of five hot dogs first to be declared the winner.
So the stage is pretty much set. It's competitive eating's Russell vs. Chamberlain; its Ali vs. Frazier; its War Admiral vs. Seabiscuit; its Tiger vs. Phil, Nicklaus vs. Palmer, Hulk Hogan vs. Andre the Giant, all rolled into one.
Oh I almost forgot: the day before, we have quite a prelim, and it's buns only. Three humans, including Tim Janus, who finished third in last year's hot dog contest, will go up against three elephants in a match to see who can eat the most frankfurter buns in a six-minute period. It will be held at the site of the Ringling Brothers circus. Says George Shea, who happens to be the chairman of the IFOCE: “The human are hoping that their superior intellect comes into play. For instance they can dunk the rolls in water." He goes on to say, “Perhaps the elephants won’t understand the word ‘Go,’”
Is he kidding? These are trained elephants he's talking about. They have tremendous capacity to inhale, eating 200 pounds of food a day, and they have trunks, for goodness sakes. They could give these guys a 5-1/2 minute head start and still win. To me, this one is: Elephants -5000, Humans +4000. Quick tip: If you go to watch this in person, try not to sit behind the elephants.
Are you sick to your stomach yet?
Then you might not want to tune in (ESPN on the Fourth of July).
And please, please - don't try this at home.
