Up to Other Articles

in Other Articles

Oscar Betting - Early Odds on the Best Picture

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

The early word on the "Best Picture" Oscar

Entertainment Betting - BetUS Sportsbook Odds

To Win Best Picture - Academy Awards, March 7, 2010

  • The Hurt Locker -135
  • Up In The Air +300
  • Invictus +800
  • Precious +700
  • Avatar +300
  • Nine +1200
  • Inglorious Basterds +900
  • An Education +1200
  • The Lovely Bones +2500
  • Up +3000

Let’s first mention that it is going to be a crowded field, because ten films will be nominated for Best Picture this year. That has some critics scratching their heads, because they don't consider this to be a great year for movies, as years go.

Also, even though there were ten films listed by BetUS, that doesn't necessarily mean those will be the ten films that will be nominated in the end.

I have not seen every one of these films, but I have seen some of them, and heard about all of them.

Let's start with UP IN THE AIR (+300 at BetUS) which got the prize from the National Board of Review already, I have seen it, and I think it is a clever film, and when critics talk about it being perfect for these times, they are right - it does center around a hired gun who travels around the country firing people who are victims of downsizing. He spends 322 days a year on the road, and he loves it.

There was a lot about George Clooney's performance that I identified with, because I have spent a year or two of my life traveling a LOT. Not as much as his "Ryan Bingham," mind you, but about 150 days in a year. In a way, even though you are above the clouds, there is a certain "underground" quality to being connected to the world (through technology) but at the same time disconnected from it (if you don't want to be reached). To practically live in airports brings you almost into a world unto itself, and this film does capture that. As a Best Picture contender, it misses just a little bit for me, though. I want to be overwhelmed, and this film fell short of it.

However, that is not to say it won't get massive support. Jason Reitman is a darling of the film set right now. He has made some "smart" films (Thank You For Smoking, Juno), he's a legacy (son of Ivan Reitman), and he's seen by many as "the next big thing." Like I said, I wouldn't for it, but it will pick up some awards along the way, and I don't know that it shouldn't be the favorite in this category.

AVATAR (+300 at BetUS) is a huge film and it is James Cameron's first feature narrative since "Titanic." There is no doubt that it will win its share of awards in the technical categories, and Cameron is making breakthroughs when it comes to 3-D movie-making. The voters like to see great box office, and last Friday the film took in $27 million. If it is a big winner financially, that will probably help its chances, but I don't see the same kind of magnetism that won the Oscars for Cameron last time out.

UP (+3000 at BetUS) is an animated film, and considered to be perhaps the best yet from Disney/Pixar. The last time an animated film got a Best Picture nomination was in 1992 with "Beauty and the Beast." Maybe with the expanded category, that will come easier this time.

If you're looking for the "Slumdog Millionaire" story this year; in other words, the "little film that could," look no further than PRECIOUS (+700 at BetUS), a sort-of coming-of-age story that has some of the elements that comprise Oscar success - an unknown breaking through in the lead role (Gabourney Sidibe), someone from another medium in a supporting role (Mariah Carey, who has drawn raves), a favorite in an acting category (which could be Mo'Nique for Best Supporting Actress) and a story of uplift. Also, it doesn't hurt to have executive producers on board like Oprah Winfrey and the genius Tyler Perry, who will push the film. Look out - this is the darkhorse.

I'm actually pretty surprised to see that THE HURT LOCKER (-135), which is about a bomb disposal unit in Iraq, is the favorite at BetUS, not because it isn't a great film, but because I'm not sure enough people will notice it in the end. I can tell you my own personal movie-going story about it, if you'll indulge me. When I went to see it at a relatively empty theater in Fort Lauderdale back in the summer, I walked in with plans to sit down for a few minutes and go to the restroom, for there was "urgent need" or so it seemed. Well, I never went to the restroom after all. That doesn't mean I peed in my pants; it means the movie was so good I forgot all about it.

THE HURT LOCKER is two hours and ten minutes of some of the best material of this or any other year. It was one of the most riveting films I have seen in a long time. I would be surprised if Jeremy Renner didn't get nominated for Best Actor, as well as Anthony Mackie as Supporting Actor. Kathryn Bigelow is a cinch to get a Best Director nod, and wouldn't it be something if she was competing in that category with Cameron, her ex-husband?