2008 Election Political Betting McCains Choice Game Changer
by BetUS Staff
BetUS online sportsbook visitors who like to bet on political action will consider the recent vice-presidential choices of the two parties, one of which is a potentially historic selection. Will any of this alter the course of events?
Well, first let's glance at the latest odds as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:
BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds
To Be Elected President
BARACK OBAMA -175
JOHN McCAIN +135
I don't know that Barack Obama's choice foe vice-president was all that surprising, or all that impactful. Joe Biden may be something of a loose cannon, but he's still part of the Democratic establishment, and does not represent something sharply in the way of "change," at least the way Obama might interpret it.
It was widely recognized that McCain's VP selection carried with it probably more significance, considering McCain's advanced age. And I'm just wondering whether it worries a voter on the fence that the slot has gone to a first-term governor. There are different schools of though on how much the VP candidate means from an electoral standpoint as far as geography is concerned. During the speculative phase of this process, you heard about the possibilities from Ohio and Minnesota and Virginia and other states that were "in play." Well, Alaska is hardly "in play," and it it were, and with all due respect to those who live there, I'm not sure how much weight it carries.
It is the general consensus from pundits that McCain's choice was a swift and direct reaction to Obama's speech at Invesco Field on Thursday night. That may have some truth to it. McCain had to strike back in some way, and realizing that the zeitgeist surrounding Obama, who spoke before 84,000 people and got an eight-point boost in the polls, went way beyond the math associated with the Electoral College, and went right for the demographics. But is Sarah Palin a game-changer?
I'm thinking that in an attempt to lure Hillary Clinton supporters who may not be too crazy about Barack Obama, McCain is making some assumptions about female voters in general that are not entirely on the mark. Namely, that they will vote for a woman simply BECAUSE she's a woman. Will they, considering that Palin is so solidly opposed to a woman's right to choose, even to the point of outlawing abortion in the case of rape or incest, draw anything of significance from women? I don't think so. It may even be regarded as insulting for the lack of sensitivity it seems to show for real women's issues.
Or is McCain trying to play to the whacko far-right wing of the Republican party, who might otherwise drift toward alternatives like Chuck Baldwin or Bob Barr? If he was, might have stayed away from someone who says "I have not paid much attention to the War in Iraq"?
If he wanted to go right-wing and represent something in the way of vitality, AND maybe chop a percentage point or two, or three, off Obama's African-American vote, he may have considered someone like former Congressman J.C. Watts. Maybe the assumptions inherent in that choice would insult African-American voters, but then again, McCain can't go any lower in terms of that demographic.
The choice of Governor Palin was an incredibly risky proposition, and the problem from his perspective is that with great risk must come great potential reward. I just don't know where the great potential reward is here.
And that makes this move a net loser.
(Charles Jay is the 2008 presidential nominee of both the Boston Tea Party and the Personal Choice Party. He says he will place odds on himself at the appropriate time. He is currently a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
