Boxing Betting - The Case for Oscar De La Hoya
by Charles Jay
For sports betting fans who like to wager on professional boxing, it may not be the best fight of the year, but it will certainly be the biggest spectacle of the year in boxing when Oscar De La Hoya, the undisputed champion of the box office, meets up with Manny Pacquiao, perhaps the world's best fighter, in a welterweight non-title fight that will take place over a scheduled twelve rounds on Saturday (December 6) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
Here are the odds on the fight, as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:
Las Vegas -- December 6
Welterweights
OSCAR DE LA HOYA -200
MANNY PACQUIAO +160
OVER 9.5 ROUNDS -190
UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS +155
THE STORY ON OSCAR DE LA HOYA:
DE LA HOYA (39-5, 30 KO's), the -200 favorite in the BetUS boxing sports betting odds, is unquestionably the most celebrated fighter of the last decade. It all emanated from the lightweight gold medal De La Hoya won at the 1992 Olympic Games in Barcelona, and he turned pro which huge bonus money and amidst much pomp and circumstance in November of 1992. De La Hoya quickly ran through his first 11 fights, then beat Jimmy Bredahl for the WBO 130-pound title in March of 1994. He grew out of the division before too long and won a WBO lightweight title, defending against people like Rafael Ruelas, Genaro Hernandez and Jesse James Leija. He scored a four-round stoppage over Julio Cesar Chavez (then 96-1-1) for the WBC 140-pound title in June of 1996 and beat Pernell Whitaker for the WBC welter crown in April of 1997. At 147 pounds he did some of his best work, defending against the likes of Hector Camacho, Wilfredo Rivera, Chavez (in a rematch) and Oba Carr, beat Ike Quartey by decision in a sensational fight in which he got off the deck, and capped it off with a huge showdown against fellow unbeaten Felix Trinidad.
Though a lot of observers, at ringside and around the world, thought De La Hoya outboxed Trinidad, he faded in the latter rounds and allowed Trinidad to gather enough points to take the decision. Two fights later he suffered a split decision loss to undefeated Shane Mosley, in another mega-fight. De La Hoya performed some dramatics in his September 2002 bout with Fernando Vargas, in which he was defending the WBC 154-pound title he won against Javier Castillejo, scoring a sensational 11th-round TKO. De La Hoya moved on from that to fight a rematch with Mosley a year later, and though the majority opinion was that he did enough to win the decision, the judges saw it differently, and massive controversy ensued. Oscar simply decided to move up in weight class, and won the WBO middleweight crown with a decision over Germany's Felix Sturm in June of 2004. This decision was disputed too, but this time De La Hoya appeared to be the beneficiary. That was the precursor to a huge fight against Bernard Hopkins, where De La Hoya, despite some good work early on, was worn down eventually, and fell victim to a body shot in the ninth round that knocked him out. De La Hoya stayed out of action for over a year and a half after that, and came back to stop Ricardo Mayorga in six rounds, once again winning the WBC title at 154 pounds. On May 5, 2007, De La Hoya fought Floyd Mayweather, who came into the fight with a 37-0 record and the "best pound-for-pound" designation. Oscar failed to use his jab enough, something he recognized in post-fight interviews, and was beaten on a split decision, which sent him into another year of inactivity. De La Hoya last fought on May 3, winning a decision over Steve Forbes in what amounted to a glorified tuneup.
THE CASE FOR DE LA HOYA
De La Hoya fights about once a year, which is enough for him to maintain his leverage with HBO, which aids him in other pursuits, like securing dates for his Golden Boy Promotions, and the fighters he has under contract, a list that includes Bernard Hopkins, Shane Mosley and many others. And even though the idea was that he was going to quit after this fight, that isn't going to happen. He'll continue to milk the HBO relationship for all it's worth. The effect of that, though, is that he hasn't become a beat-up fighter. In fact, I have not seen any real evidence that he's become stale because of inactivity. I know there are people who don't like De La Hoya; who are jealous of his financial success in boxing. But I don't think there is anybody who can, with any plausibility, accuse him of ducking people. Almost anyone who's been out there to fight, he's fought, and mostly, it's because it has made good business sense. He's seen a lot of different situations in the ring, and so I doubt there's anything that's going to shock him - even a 5'6-1/2" southpaw who is highly unorthodox. In fact, you can make a good case that De La Hoya has enough ring savvy to be able to impose on Pacquiao the impact of experiencing something Manny has never seen before. You're not going to overcome De La Hoya in the area of mental toughness.
Oscar says he feels comfortable at this weight. He's fought 12 times at welter, and if anything, his forays into the 154 and 160-pound divisions were unnatural. At 147 pounds he has power and quickness, and that combination becomes something that will be very difficult for Pacquiao to deal with. He also has a decent chin, which means he has the capacity to walk through what Pacquiao has to throw at him and throw big punches with some degree of impunity. When Erik Morales was closer to the top of his form, he demonstrated that someone who could win fights in more than one way was going to present problems for Pacquiao, who is not the type to outbox or outfox anyone. De La Hoya fits into that category of fighter, because he is patient enough to box and win on points; in fact, his skill level is higher than that of Pacquiao. And of course, he can hit.
And that brings to mind the natural size difference here. Remember that Pacquiao is a guy who started his professional career at 106 pounds. That is one pound over the limit of what we know as the "straw weight" or "minimumweight" division, which is the lowest in boxing. And now he's fighting someone who has won a world title at 160 pounds. These fighters will weigh in the day before the fight. That means Oscar has a chance to re-hydrate and gain some weight. How much could Pacquiao actually put on and stay in shape? There is bound to an actual weight difference that is much to Oscar's advantage. Pacquiao has been stopped by a flyweight. And he's never been hit with as much authority as De La Hoya will hit him. How will he react when that happens? What will a stiff jab do to him? How will he recuperate if he's hurt? These are all good questions. I don't know that he has satisfactory answers.
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com is a former manager, matchmaker and color commentator in professional boxing. He currently pulls no punches in the BetUS Locker Room)
