in Other Free Picks

A true BetUS gambler (that’s all of us, right?) would never let the Super Bowl signal the final wager of the year. I mean, that’s ridiculous when we can lay money on all sorts of goodies until July when the NFL Preseason starts.

One of those goodies is Becky’s favorite “sport”, the Oscar race. I know, it sounded silly to me to lay some hard-earned cash on these races. That was about ten years ago. Since then, I’ve been en fuego, folks! Living in Los Angeles, I sort of have a nice bead on how these races shape-up. Now, I’m not saying I can do some good old-fashioned Tim Donaghy point-shaving, but I am saying that as L.A. goes, so do the Oscar races.

Let’s get to it then!

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Ryan, for her work in Gone, Baby Gone, is the favorite at BetUS odds of – 120, but upsets always happen in this category. Ruby Dee won the SAG award for playing Frank’s mama in American Gangster. Plus, she’s old. She’s also got better odds then Amy Ryan at even money. Why not? Cate Blanchett Bob Dylan but nobody really cares at this point and that ugly kid from Atonement should have no shot.

: Ruby Dee at BetUS odds of EVEN money.

Best Supporting Actor:

Javier Bardem is the BetUS favorite at – 1000 and supposedly a lock in this category, right? Wrong! Upsets routinely happen in this category. I’m betting on one of the long-shots. That’s another old man - - Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild. He’s sitting up there at + 750. The Academy is dying to give this excellent actor an award. He’ll never get a lifetime achievement so they have to give it to him this year. Holbrook in a major upset. Casey Affleck is too young and Philip Seymour Hoffman already won a Best Actor award.

: Hal Holbrook at BetUS odds of + 750.

Best Director:

I can tell you that Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton has no chance. I can also tell you that the Juno guy has no chance. Julian Shnabel actually has an outside chance, but his film, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. So, it comes down to the Coen brothers for No Country for Old Men at – 400 or P.T. Anderson for There Will Be Blood at EVEN money. I’m in P.T.’s corner. Why not? Both the Coehn brother’s and P.T. Anderson are due, but P.T.’s the real auteur. I just don’t see the Academy giving an Oscar to two guys in this category and that’s what they’d be doing if they give it to the Cohen brothers.

: P.T. Anderson at BetUS odds of EVEN money.

Best Actress:

I hate chalk, but what’s the point? Julie Christie is old. Heck, she’s ancient. Ancient always wins over talent every year. Christie in a landslide.

: Julie Christie at BetUS odds of - 400.

Best Actor:

Daniel Day-Lewis deserves it but he deserved it for Gangs of New York and got screwed that year. Why not get screwed this year? Everybody says that they are voting for Daniel Day which means that not everybody will. Saying one thing and doing another is an Academy modus operandi. That means that I’m going with another long-shot. His name is Johnny Depp and everybody and her mother loves this man. I haven’t seen his movie, Sweeney Todd, and will probably never see his movie. All I know is that the entire city of Los Angeles is dying to give this man an Oscar. They have been for years. Well, I’ll be wagering that he gets it this year. George Clooney has won an Oscar and nobody saw Tommy Lee Jones in his film. The odds on Day-Lewis are too low for me to even think about him. I’m betting on Depp.

: Johnny Depp at BetUS odds of + 600

Best Picture:

There Will Be Blood and No Country For Old Men are the favorite. Guess what? They also look like the same film to a lot of Academy voters. High-pedigree movies with a lot of violence. Sounds a bit like last years’ The Departed. I think the vote might split which means that Atonement, which won the Golden Globe could sneak in there and take it ala Chariots of Fire way back in 1981. The Academy loves British people and Atonement is full of British people. It’s another film I haven’t seen, but that doesn’t matter. They gave a nomination to the ugly kid in the film. That means that they are still thinking about it which means it’s worth a bet at the odds.

: Atonement at BetUS odds of + 450.

Until next week, good luck!

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