Golden Globes Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger is Favored
by Charles Jay
Entertainment Props Betting
In the Golden Globes, there are two different categories for Best Actor, but the Best Supporting Actor prize comes from among of group of five performers who cover both dramas and musicals/comedies. The role of a supporting actor, as recognized by awards voters, could also cover a wide range, from those who are really leads to those who have relatively little screen time.
Let's take a look at the contenders, as nominated by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), which runs the Golden Globes:
BetUS Sportsbook Odds
To Win Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise (Tropic Thunder) +2200
Robert Downey Jr (Tropic Thunder) +1200
Ralph Fiennes (The Duchess) +1600
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt) +600
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) -750
TOM CRUISE (+2200 at BetUS) has an appearance in "Tropic Thunder" that is un-credited, and he doesn't appear in ads advertising the film. The role, which is that of a blowhard studio executive, was originally intended to be a complete secret until the release, but then word leaked out about it, and there were pictures of Cruise in his fat suit and a balding cap on the internet. His representatives were not pleased, as one can judge from this statement: "Mr. Cruise's appearance was supposed to be a surprise for his fans worldwide. Paparazzi have ruined what should have been a fun discovery for moviegoers." I doubt there are too many un-credited roles that get nominated for a Golden Globe.
ROBERT DOWNEY JR. (+1200 at BetUS) is the supporting player from "Tropic Thunder" who is getting the most buzz. Downey's turn is outrageous, as an Australian method actor who has "pigment-changing" surgery so that he can inhibit an Africa-American character, and he really gets an opportunity to display some acting chops, the kind that often get the attention of voters. Many of the critics who panned the movie singled out Downey as the one bright spot; the actor who stole the show. In fact, there is a lot of talk about an Oscar nomination. Downey also hit big with "Iron Man" this past year, and often actors are recognized for more than one success. If anything is going to derail the Heath Ledger Express, It's going to take something out of left field, and Downey has that angle he can hope for. If anyone is the dark horse, it's him.
RALPH FIENNES (+1600 at BetUS) plays William Cavendish, 5th Duke of Devonshire in "The Duchess," opposite Keira Knightley, and it is one of two Golden Globes he is nominated for this year - the other being as Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Film for "Bernard and Doris". Fiennes has not won a Golden Globe yet, although there is reason to believe he'll be nominated again in the future. There is just no buzz going about this film or this role, and that is not going to be enough to get him over the top, although picking a Globe up for the other role may be a nice consolation.
PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN (+600 at BetUS) is the very strange Father Flynn in "Doubt," one of the year's best films, but that film has not been nominated by the HFPA for Best Motion Picture Drama. What does that mean? Well, it could mean the movie is not getting enough respect, although for Hoffman and his co-star Meryl Streep (nominated for Best Actress) that wouldn't normally be a disqualifier. Hoffman is one of those nominees who is more of a lead than a supporting player in his film, which sometimes makes it unfair to the rest of the field. He has also garnered nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association, the Satellite Awards, the Chicago Film Critics, the Screen Actors Guild and the Online Film Critics Society.
HEATH LEDGER (-750 at BetUS) is the closest thing the Golden Globes have to a lock. As the Joker in "The Dark Knight" he has already won from the L.A. Film Critics, the New York Film Critics, and a slew of others who decorate actors at this time of year. Not only is the role substantial, and in one of the year's biggest films, but Ledger's tragic death creates a legend that makes it almost a "no contest" with the rest of this field. This would be a posthumous award, which is not unprecedented, and it completes the kind of storyline in which Golden Globe voters (and inevitably Academy voters as well) sufficiently honor his memory. There were others who could have conceivably offered a challenge, like Josh Brolin of "Milk" or Dev Patel from "Slumdog Millionaire," but they were not nominated. The question isn't whether Ledger is justifiably the overwhelming favorite, it's whether there is still value at -750 in the BetUS Golden Globes betting odds. I say yes.
(Charles Jay has a starring role as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
