2008 Election Political Betting – States Still Up For Grabs!

BetUS sportsbook visitors who like to bet on political action will know that the election is not determined by the popular vote, but rather by the count that comes from the Electoral College, so we must analyze things on a state-by-state basis.

And so we look at some of the so-called "battleground" or "bellwether" states today, in an effort to get a better understanding of who is ahead. And your humble writer is actually part of the battle in a couple of places (see below).

Let's take that state-by-state look, with the BetUS odds attached:

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

FLORIDA

McCain -225

Obama +175

-- With 27 electoral votes, Florida is a very big prize indeed. And it has the potential to be very, very close. But McCain is up in most major polling. The Rasmussen poll shows him with a two-point lead. In the Quinnipiac poll, he is up by four points. In the survey taken by InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position he has a four-point margin. One organization, the Mason-Dixon poll, had Obama up by a point, but this was taken during the Democratic National Convention. Interestingly, while only 14% of those polled said the selection of Joe Biden as the running mate would make them more likely to vote for Obama, 50% said that selecting Mitt Romney as VP would have made them more likely to vote for McCain. How will Sarah Palin's selection have an effect when the next poll is taken? Yours truly will be on the ballot in Florida, and we're hoping to do something constructive (maybe disruptive?) here as we're in the midst of setting up a college tour. Wish us luck.

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

OHIO

Obama -140

McCain - Even

-- With 20 electoral votes, this one is a biggie. And it is close as hell. The CNN/Time Magazine poll has Obama holding a two-point lead. Obama is ahead by one point in the Quinnipiac poll. In the poll taken by the Columbus Dispatch (which was gathered before the conventions) McCain was ahead by a point. The Rasmussen poll has McCain ahead by five points. Obviously, most of this was within the margin of error. Ohio, a state that is said to offer a cross-section of people that most accurately reflects the entire electorate, was pivotal in both 2000 and 2004, and is once again up for grabs.

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

VIRGINIA

Obama -140

McCain - Even

-- You know that Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, is going to be a closely-contested state because both parties had given some lip service to possibly having a running mate from this state. With the Democrats, there was talk of Jim Webb or governor Tim Kaine, while with the Republicans, names like Eric Cantor (a Congressman) were bandied about. The latest Rasmussen poll had McCain ahead by just a point, as did Survey USA, while it was a flat-footed tie in the InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey. Yes, this one will go down to the wire.

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

COLORADO

Obama -200

McCain +150

-- This one might be closer than the odds indicate. However, the polling data was taken largely before the Democrats had their convention in Denver, and before Obama's speech before 84,000 at Invesco Field. The latest numbers we have here are from the CNN/Time poll, which has McCain ahead 47%-46%. McCain also had a three-point lead in the Rocky Mountain News poll, and one point in the Rasmussen survey. Mason Dixon has Obama ahead by three points. Plug, plug - Charles Jay will also be on the presidential ballot in this key battleground state.