in Other Props
Curlin is a Lock, Right? Not So Fast!
by BetUS Staff
After finishing second to Red Rocks in his first try on turf three weeks ago for Breeders’ Cup come this October. There was some doubt because Curlin looked absolutely invincible leading up to his first try on turf. The thinking was that Curlin would win his first turf race and then prance off to the Prix D L’Arc Triomphe in Paris, France where he would beat down the greatest turf horses in the world.
As an Breeders’ Cup betting Turf Champion, Better Talk Now who finished second. Curlin also lost to the reigning Breeders’ Cup Turf Champion, Red Rocks.
But neither Red Rocks nor Better Talk Now would have a chance against Europe’s best Turf runners. That’s why Red Rocks will most likely try to defend his title in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and bypass the Prix, this October.
Curlin may return to dirt which means that the next most likely huge race for him, after he destroys the competition in the Jockey Gold Cup later this summer, would be the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Then again, his connections may try him on turf again.
Why? Because the Breeders’ Cup, for the first time in its history, is going to be run over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Get this, not only is the Cup being run over a synthetic surface, its being run over a newly installed synthetic surface. Nobody is going to know how that surface will play on Breeders’ Cup Day until horses start running over it come this September and early October during the Oak Tree Meet.
Two of the top trainers in New York, Nick Zito and Bobby Frankel, have expressed their reservations regarding a synthetic Breeders’ Cup. As a BetUS online sportsbook wagering fan, I too have my reservations. But that’s life, right?
Let’s take a look at the Top Six Contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic this October with their online betting odds as well as some information regarding their chances!
Top Six Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders
1. Curlin - - online odds + 150 - - Curlin is the best racehorse in the world. If it wasn’t for the synthetic surface craze, I’d say that he wins this race by no less than 10 to 15 lengths. That’s the issue, of course. Curlin is a dirt horse and there’s no telling how he will perform over a newly installed cushion track at Santa Anita. Yes, all of the other horses he will face are in the same boat, but Curlin will be going off somewhere around 3 or 4/5. That makes him an underlay. I can’t make an online bet on him at those odds. Still, he’s the best horse in the world. So, he’s number one on this list.
2. Tiago - - online odds + 1000 - - Tiago hardly ever gets there first, but look at who might show up for this race. Mast Track, Big Brown, Tres Barrachos, Well Armed and Two Step Salsa, will all be gunning for the lead. That leaves Tiago with little work to do. Also, we can’t forget that all synthetic surfaces can be biased against speed. That means that Big Brown, who would probably run the other four horses I mention off their feet on the dirt, could get into a wicked pace duel on the synthetic.
3. Well Armed - - online odds + 2000 - - If his connections decide to go for the money instead of stealing a paycheck in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, then Well Armed is the one speed horse I would consider wagering on in this race. He has proven form over a synthetic surface and could outrun Big Brown to the first turn. This is a serious speed horse.
4. Go Between - - online odds + 1000 - - Another horse with synthetic surface experience that on dirt would get crushed by Curlin, online wagering odds aren’t bad either.
5. Awesome Gem - - online odds + 2000 - - Awesome Gem, Go Between and Tiago are pretty much the same horse. If you like one, you have to like the other. They all are closers with artificial surface ability who need speed up front to do their best work. They all three will be going off at huge odds in this race and all three won’t have to travel because they run on West Coast tracks. Awesome Gem has tons of experience on synthetic surfaces. He’s a very good racehorse. Not great, but good. That might be enough for him to pull a huge upset in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
6. Big Brown - - online odds + 400 - - I think he’s rounding back into form but it’s going to be dirt form, not synthetic form. That compromises his chances big time in a race loaded with speed. Brown still hasn’t run against anybody this year. Pyro and D’Tara are both jokes and beating Macho Again is meaningless. When he beats a real speed horse like Well Armed or holds off a monster like Curlin, those 4/1 odds will look great. But until he does it, I can’t recommend at such low online wagering odds.
Check the BetUS Belmont Stakes
