in Other Props
Ledgers Ever Lasting Role - The Oscars Best Supporting Actor
by Charles Jay
When you watch the Academy Awards on February 22, do not be surprised when they announce that the winner, posthumously, is HEATH LEDGER, for his role as the Joker in "The Dark Knight." I am not sure that Ledger (who is listed at -2500, and justifiably so, in the BetUS Oscar betting odds) would have been such a prohibitive favorite had he not died so tragically, but we will never know that.
Here we operate in the same spirit as the baseball player who taps a ground ball to the pitcher, or pops one up in the infield. We simply have to run it out. With that, let's look at the odds as they are posted at the BetUS Sportsbook:
To Win Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight -2500
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt +1400
Josh Brolin - Milk +1600
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road +1600
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder +3000
Quite a while ago, BetUS posted advance odds of -120 on Ledger, and I told you to jump on it because that would seem like a major bargain by the time the big night came along.
Too late.
It is not uncommon for longshots to win Oscars, but it is rare that such a prohibitive favorite would NOT win. However, what I thought what we might do is present a case for the other four nominees in the event Ledger didn't win the statue. Or, in case you are the type who goes to the racetrack strictly to bet longshots, regardless of what they can do, maybe I can point you in the right direction.
PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN (+1400 at BetUS) played a priest accused of molestation in "Doubt" opposite Meryl Streep. The film has generally gotten very strong reviews, and Hoffman is obviously an actor the Academy likes very much, having garnered a nomination for "Charlie Wilson's War" in this category and a win for "Capote" as Best Actor. There are some great bouts between him and Streep here. Hoffman is one of those actors who is going to be a perennial, which could work either way for him; some voters may figure there will be other opportunities to honor him again, while the same couldn't be said of Ledger.
JOSH BROLIN (+1600 at BetUS) is riding what can best be described as a sensational two-year run, in which he made a memorable appearance in "American Gangster" as a corrupt cop, had what in effect was the leading role in last year's Best Picture, "No Country for Old Men," was part of the supporting cast of "In the Valley of Elah" and "Happy-Go-Lucky" and had what I though was a very underrated turn as George W. Bush in "W." Now he is nominated as Dan White in Gus Van Sant's "Milk" and he plays the conflicted villain. This is a tremendous amount of notable work in such a short period of time, and sometimes the Academy honors that in the form of rewarding one performance. A little trivia - in the hilarious "Flirting With Disaster" from 1996, he and Richard Jenkins, another first-time nominee (for Best Actor) played a gay couple who worked for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF). he may not win, but he'll be back.
MICHAEL SHANNON (+1600 at BetUS) is a virtual unknown who had a memorable part as an erratic, unstable neighbor who couldn't help telling the truth - brutal as it was - to stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet in "Revolutionary Road." Shannon's had a pretty good career as a character actor - I first saw him in "Pearl Harbor" but he's been in a lot of good films - and in his case, it's one of those deals where it's an honor just to be nominated. His co-stars were snubbed, at least for that picture (Winslet was nominated for "The Reader") and this may be a way for some Oscar voters to recognize that film (too bad we don't get final vote totals, like in the Heisman Trophy).
ROBERT DOWNEY (+3000 at BetUS) is nominated for playing black Method actor Kirk Lazarus in the movie-within-a-movie that was at the center of "Tropic Thunder." It's a tour de force, but the movie was considered lightweight by most people. It is not unprecedented for someone in such a zany role as Downey's to win the Oscar - Kevin Kline in "A Fish Called Wanda" immediately comes to mind, but there are others - and as in the case of Mickey Rourke, there is something of a comeback story at work here, although Downey's problems were more severe and his comeback was more gradual. Downey has had phenomenal box office success as well, starring in the big-money hit "Iron Man." The Academy likes box-office.
Downey is a real out-on-the-limb pick, and there is more "value" than the others at the price, but I guess if anyone aside from Ledger were to get this award, it would be Brolin.
For what he's done lately, he should.
(Charles Jay strolls along the red carpet - at his home - and also contributes to the BetUS Locker Room)
