Will it come Down to Ohio?

BetUS online sportsbook visitors who bet on politics will surely be interested in any incremental developments in the polling data that comes out of key states. One of those - maybe the most important of the fifty states - is Ohio, which is often considered the state that offers the most representative cross-section of the American populace.

Let's glance at the latest odds on the election as they are posted at BetUS Sportsbook:

BetUS 2008 Election Political Odds

Candidate To Win 2008 Presidential Election

BARACK OBAMA -250

JOHN McCAIN +185

When it really comes down to it, the 2008 election might be decided in a handful of states. And right now it is tipping toward John McCain. The site forecasts Obama getting a shade less than 49% of the popular vote, with McCain at just under 48% and the other three percent in play, where presumably it can be contested by the rest of us.

The site recognizes many states in which either the Republican or Democratic candidate has a slight lead, but also two states that are too close to call. One of them is Nevada, and the other is Ohio, where polling results have differed widely. For example, a Rasmussen poll that just came out has McCain ahead there by at least six points, not counting those who lean toward him. Meanwhile, a July 21 survey released by Public Policy Polling has Obama actually leading by a 48%-40% margin, and holding an overwhelming 91%-6% edge among that state's African-American voters (the same survey has McCain drawing 46% of whites, compared to 42% for Obama).

The Rasmussen surveys do take into account a third-party preference, while the PPP poll does not. Then they plug the two-party model back in, which is where McCain gains an extra four points from people "leaning" to him, indicating perhaps that, in the Buckeye State, the Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party) and Bob Barr vote will take more away from him than the Cynthia McKinney (Green Party) and Ralph Nader vote will take from Obama.

Another interesting calculation on the FiveThirtyEight.com site involves something that (hint, hint) could have the makings of a prop somewhere down the road, is that there is a 2.96% chance that Obama loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral vote (about a 33/1 shot), while it is 2.47% that McCain will lose the popular vote, but win the Electoral College (a little less than 40/1). It is 7.85% that McCain will win 375 electoral votes or more (almost 12/1), while it is 17.01% that Obama will do the same (nearly 5/1). And there is a 0.68% chance, according to the site, that there will be a tie in electoral votes (which comes out to 146/1).

Perhaps the most relevant tidbit that can be culled from these calculations is that there is a 16.86% chance (nearly 5/1) that Obama can lose Ohio, yet win the election, while for McCain, the stakes are even higher. If he loses Ohio, there is a 2.15% chance (45.5/1) for him to prevail on election night.

That is most certainly focusing his attention on this all-important battleground. And you can bet that it is weighing heavy on the minds of the backers of both candidates when it comes to selecting a running mate. Could a Ted Strickland or Rob Portman, largely unknown to Americans, play the critical part in moving a small number of votes to make the big difference in the outcome?