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Odds on Oscar: Best Supporting Actress

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

This can often be a strong category, because while there may not be a lot of great female leads written for Hollywood films, there are plenty of good supporting parts. By the same token, there are often some "interchangeable parts," in that there will be snubs who mighty very easily be prime contenders.

Many observers refer to Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Melanie Laurent (Inglorious Bastards), Samantha Morton (The Messenger) and Rosamund Pike (An Education) among those candidates. Either Emily Mortimer or Michelle Williams from "Shutter Island" might have fit in well here. Mariah Carey of "Precious" also had some sentimental support.

Let's take a look at the odds as they are posted Sportsbook:

  • Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air) +800
  • Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart) +3000
  • Monique (Precious) -1500
  • Penelope Cruz (Nine) +1200
  • Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air) +1200

Now let's size up the contenders:

ANNA KENDRICK (+800) -- She was sort of the tight-ass trainee who begins to loosen up, with the plutonic help of George Clooney in "Up in the Air," which has gotten a lot of raves from critics. That was only the sixth movie Kendrick had appeared in, but one of those movies was the massive cult hit "Twilight," and in two others she had been nominated for an Independent Spirit Award, so now with this Oscar nomination she is something of a hot commodity.

Her credentials in this role include a win from the National Board of Review, as well as nominations from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actor's Guild. There was very little doubt that she was going to be hearing her name when the Academy came calling, but her problem might be that a co-star, Vera Farmiga, is equally deserving for the same film.

MEGGIE GYLLENHAAL (+3000) -- It was maybe a little surprising to hear her name being called, not because her work in "Crazy Heart" was not deserving, but because she had been bypassed for extraordinary roles in the past, like "Secretary" in 2002 and "SherryBaby" in 2006. Oscar has not treated her very well, and maybe that can change this time, especially since she played opposite Jeff Bridges, who is a heavy favorite to take home the statue.

MONIQUE (-1500) -- Everyone has basically given her the Oscar already, and there is plenty if justification to make that forecast, as she has won the Golden Globe, the Broadcast Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics and Screen Actors Guild awards, not to mention awards from film critics in Boston, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Florida, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, San Francisco and Washington DC, as well as the Special Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival.

In other words, she's got almost all the hardware. For observers of the comedienne/talk show host, her role as Mary Lee Johnston, the mean-spirited mother in "Precious" was a true revelation. Could she be the next Oprah?

PENELOPE CRUZ (+1200) -- The 35-year-old may have been taken lightly as an actress early in her career, but you can rest assured she is being taken dead seriously now, with nominations in three of the last four years, winning Best Supporting Actress for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" last year.

Of course, it's that win last year that disqualifies her in many people's minds this time around; that and the fact that not everyone was crazy about her film, the musical "Nine" that starred Daniel Day-Lewis. Cruz was nominated for the SAG and Golden Globe awards, and lost out on both, and Marion Cotillard was the one who got the supporting actress nod from the Broadcast Film Critics Association (BRCA).

VERA FARMIGA (+1200) -- She has really been a champion of independent films in the past, and Oscar ignored great performances in "Down to the Bone": and "Nothing But the Truth," not to mention an appearance in a Best Picture winner like "The Departed" that was none too shabby.

Here she finally gets her due, as the distaff version of George Clooney's character in "Up In The Air." The problem for her is that she will split votes with Anna Kendrick, who stood out in a very different way, but the nomination means something for her, because it's my bet that she'll be getting recognition from the Academy for years to come.

CONCLUSION: I suppose Mo'Nique has this thing cornered. If she lost, Oprah Winfrey, one of the producers of "Precious," would probably call for an investigation, and then you'd have a real mess. I don't see Cruz winning for a second year in a row, and the "Up In The Air" stars will cancel each other. If you like longshots, then I think you'll want to put your money on Maggie Gyllenhaal at 30/1.