World Cup 2006: Will Spain tank against the Saudis?

Such is life in the first stage of the . Each team came into this game with two wins in two Group C games, securing a spot in the Round of 16 before Wednesday’s festivities. That early success gave both clubs a chance to play what amounted to an exhibition contest. The Dutch made five changes to the starting lineup from their Ivory Coast matchup, while Argentina took the opportunity to start Lionel Messi, the 18-year-old heir (his 19th birthday is this Saturday) to Maradona’s throne as the country’s soccer god. A 0-0 draw was no surprise under those circumstances.

We could have had a similar situation on Friday, but organizers had already laid things out to play both the remaining Group G matches at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time. That prevents . Reports indicate striker Fernando Torres, who leads the Spanish with three goals thus far, will be rested Friday. Cesc Fabregas and Carles Puyol are also candidates to sit with one yellow card each; a second yellow for either man would cause him to be disqualified from the knockout stage.

The Saudis are in a desperate situation. They need a win over Spain to advance, plus a favorable result in the other Group H matchup between Ukraine and Tunisia. It’s a bit of a surprise that Saudi Arabia is even in a position to make it to the Round of 16; they have yet to win a game in nine World Cup matches since beating Belgium in 1994, which also saw the Saudis reach the knockout stage. But they did look skillful in their opening 2-2 draw with Tunisia before running into an angry Ukraine squad and falling 4-0.

Spain might not be at their best against Saudi Arabia, but that doesn’t mean they’re playing to lose – especially given their history of disappointment at the World Cup. “If we win our last game and finish on nine points, then people will see we mean business,” Torres told Reuters earlier this week. “We are starting to realize we have no reason to envy any of the other teams that are here.”

None of Spain’s World Cup blemishes can be blamed on coach Luis Aragones. The Spaniards have yet to lose a game under Aragones, picking up 16 wins and eight draws in 24 games. They’re pegged at –600 to make it 17 victories at the expense of the Saudis; you can also get Spain at +120 while laying two goals. The Saudis, meanwhile, are +1200 desert dogs to win Friday. Given Spain’s likelihood of resting Torres and others, grabbing Saudi Arabia +2 at a price of –140 might be worth a look. A draw would pay a tasty +475.