AIG Japan Open Quarterfinal Picks - Andy Roddick vs. Viktor Troicki

Tokyo, Japan – The AIG Japan Open enters the quarterfinal and all except one berth holds a seeded player. Serbian Viktor Troicki moved into the final eight on a free pass after seventh seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga retired with an abdominal strain early in the second set. Troicki was trailing 5-7, 2-1 when Tsonga threw in the towel.

This was supposed to be Andy Roddick vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Pre-tournament predictions had second seed, Roddick slotted to clash with Tsonga at this stage of the tournament, and they were inextricably drawing towards a collision in the quarters, if Tsonga had not withdrawn with an injury. Instead, the unseeded, little-known World No.65 Troicki dubiously stepped up in his stead.

Now for those sports bettors that might be under the impression that this is a good matchup for Roddick, a better alternative to the big-hitting Tsonga, an easier opponent to duel against for a semi-final berth then it be may surprising to learn how far off the mark these notions are really.

Tennis Betting Line: Viktor Troicki +300 Andy Roddick -500

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time Friday October 3, 2008

Head-to-Head Analysis: Andy Roddick and Viktor Troicki are tied 1-1 lifetime, the most recent win going the way of the Serbian. At the Legg Mason Classic, Triocki upended Roddick’s title defence campaign in the quarterfinals, storming back after being held to love in the first set to win the shocker in 3 sets, 0-6, 6-2, 6-4. This is their second meeting in 2008 with Troicki currently holding the 1-0 edge.

Tennis Betting Analysis: A lot more is at stake this time around for Roddick (-500) who is trying to hang on to his flimsy hold on the eighth ranking in the ATP as the race for the season-ending Master Cup tightens. Roddick arrived in Tokyo after winning the China Open last week in Beijing, picking up his third title for the season (he also won titles in San Jose and Dubai this year). Roddick brought a 41-13 mark to Tokyo and improved to 43-13 with wins against Ivo Minar and Jurgen Melzer respectively in the two preceding rounds.

Since dismissing Coach Jimmy Connors Andy Roddick has been living and dying by his serve. In his opening round triumph against Minar, albeit firing 37 aces past the Czech he was taken to three tiebreakers 7-6(11), 6-7(4), 7-6(2). Against Melzer, he struck 20 aces (for a whopping 57 aces overall in two matches) to clinch the 7-6 (2), 6-2 victory.

For Troicki, Tsonga’s withdrawal was indeed a fortuitous event and not the only circumstance of fortune to have befallen him in this tournament. Gael Monfils withdrew before the tournament began and Troicki received his slot in the draw, which meant he also got the bye into the second round. So Troicki opened his campaign against Wayne Odesnik with a resounding 6-2, 6-1 win before coming up against Tsonga in the third round – a match in which he lost the first set but led by a game in the second.

Tennis Betting Verdict: Despite earning the quarterfinal spot somewhat dubiously there is nothing to say he could not have beaten Tsonga had their match gone to three sets. It was unfortunate he did not get a chance to prove that but the tournament must go on (needs must). More importantly, considering the way he handled the moment against Roddick at the Legg Mason Classic tournament, before a packed American crowd, he should be confident coming up against him a second time around – this time in front of a largely unbiased Tokyo crowd.