Does Bias have a place in Betting on Djokovic

Bangkok, Thailand – All bettors (yes, I am talking about all of you sports bettors out there) have HUGE favourites that you like to bet on, come through for you and reward your loyalty, while, at the same time, entertaining a few huge disfavourites (if disfavourites is not a word, consider it invented) who you would not hesitate to bet against. (Those who know me, or have read some of my past Rafael Nadal.) (My disfavourites: where do I begin?)

The thing is – tennis betting, more specifically, successful tennis betting, demands the separation of personal opinion or fan-like tendencies when handicapping a match. This is important but easier said than done (clearly, we are all naturally biased).

Why is this important?

This week at the Thailand Open, Djokovic is in action for the first time since the US Open and after his US Open, antics created a bit of controversy and suffered a backlash many in the tennis betting community would love to bet against him.

Don’t know to what am I referring?

Djokovic is appearing in his first event since his charmingly, unprofessional US Open quarterfinal post-match comment, the ha-ha-ha in your face Djokovic having 17 injuries to contend with) almightily blew up in his face, turning the wrath of the New York crowd at Flushing Meadows against him after beating A-Rod. In one fell swoop, Djokovic’s star – once the darling of the tennis world – came crashing down as his comments were seen to be ungracious –an uncalled for act in arrogance by a spoilt tennis star that has let fame get to him.

With the demise of his popularity, his stock in the tennis betting market took a slight beating and not just amongst North American sports bettors but worldwide (true story). Fame is not for everyone. No sir. Not for the faint of heart. And sometimes all it takes is one mean, spoilt comment for the sports betting trend to shift markedly against an athlete.

Colour me surprised?

Not really. Can one blame the sports bettor community, who were shocked and gasping in horror at Djokovic’s utter thoughtlessness, if they singularly unite in betting against him, hoping for a twofold justice: he receives a bit of a comeuppance and they profit.

I suppose it was to be expected but, at the same time, it would not be the best strategy in tennis handicapping to adopt.

I am under no delusions about Djokovic’s character ( I was never really a big fan of his bad boy image, preferring Federer’s gentlemanly demeanour and Rafa’s unassuming nature more ), but there was no denying the kid had game and in tennis betting it is precisely the latter rather than the former that matters.

Now Djokovic did like the spotlight. The US Open was the very scene his popularity ascended new heights, impersonating various tennis stars as Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal had the New York crowd eating out of the palm of his hands. So the loss of their adoration was more felt than he probably let on. He could be a little rattled – unsure of himself and his place in the game.