US Open Draw Analysis - Federer and Davydenko

Flushing Meadow, New York – Though Nikolay Davydenko is a top 10 player, his appearance in Roger Federer’s quarter of the draw is about as threatening as a floor mat. It goes without saying the presence of the rest of the seeds in this section as well. Makes for a cakewalk of a quarter for the Swiss.

If the rest of the playing field at the US Open hoped Roger Federer would be dealt a tough draw they had to be bitterly disappointed when the lay of the land was revealed on Thursday last week. Federer is in by far the most attractive section, and if that is anything to go by, of the so-called “big four” one has to believe he is best poised to traipse to his allotted semi-final spot.

The only credible threats in his section of the draw don’t happen to be threats to him at all (if that makes any sense). Aside from Nikolay Davydenko, seeded eight and a potential quarterfinal opponent for Federer, immediate seeded opposition comes from No.31 Lleyton Hewitt in the third round (potentially) – a player he has owned like a gazillion times in a row over the last five years I believe. Then there is the possible threat from James-I-am-in-an-awful-slump-and maybe-should-be retiring-Blake (No.21 seed) in the last 16 or clay court specialist Tommy Robredo the No.14 seed. By the way, Fed owns these two studs as well, in case you were not sure.

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I think we can all safely assume Federer will cruise to the quarters without as much as a hitch. Be surprised if he dropped a set along the way come to that.

Davydenko‘s section of the quarters is where things could get more interesting. The Russian has seeded threats in No.12 Robin Soderling and No.22 Sam Querrey – the US Open series winner who is competing for an additional $1 million dollars in bonus money should he accomplish something that is quite unthinkable – win the title.

Either Soderling or Querrey could potentially emerge into the last 16 to battle Davydenko for the quarterfinal spot. Both would have a serious shot to beat him. It goes the other way – Davydenko can beat either as well.

That said, no matter which of the trio – Davydenko, Soderling or Querrey – arrives into the quarters, neither has the potential to cause Federer to quiver in his custom made Nikes. It goes more so for an unheralded player as well.

In the semis things should liven up for Federer, perhaps even cause a barely perceptible quiver. In an ideal world, one of Novak Djokovic or Andy Roddick – the top two seeds in the second quarter – would run into Federer. Based on recent form, I would say Roddick has the best chance of doing so and would pose the biggest threat to Federer.

Quarterfinal Predictions: Federer over Soderling in four sets

Semi-final Predictions: Roddick over Federer in five sets – Roddick came close to beating Federer at the All England Club. With home edge and a second shot at Federer in as many Grand Slams, you have to believe Roddick will get his sweet revenge.