US Open Draw Analysis - Why Andy Murray will not win the US Open

New York , USA – I’ve got news for all you sports bettors liking Andy Murray’s tennis odds to win the 2009 US Open title, his maiden Grand Slam mind, listed at BetUS Sportsbook at +250. I hate to break it to you but your front-runner has about as much chance to win as I have of winning a Pulitzer Prize for journalism. There are many reasons why Murray isn’t going to win and the first of which, perhaps most important (are you sitting down for this?), is a four-word noun: Juan Martin Del Potro.

Juan Martin Del Potro looms a potential quarterfinal opponent and admittedly the player with the best shot to derail the M-train from its course to Sunday’s final on September 12, 2009. When the draw was culled last Thursday, Murray let out a groan, “not Del Potro again!” I am not messing. (Well, I wasn’t there but I am sure he did. What else could that sound I heard on that day have been, seriously).

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Remember the Montreal Masters three weeks ago, Del Potro had a choke hold on the match after taking the first set and a 6-5 lead in the second – Andy Murray for the most part had been running back-and-forth like a chicken without its head, completely flummoxed. The writing was on the wall. When a bizarre twist – combination of fatigue and injury for Del Potro – at that crucial juncture occurred. Del Potro needed tending to on the changeover. It appeared he had pulled a shoulder/back muscle. He returned but it was obvious to anyone watching he could barely hold a tennis racquet, let alone play competitively. He was so hobbled. Surprise, surprise, Del Potro lost. Murray won. The match (in my opinion) and subsequently Murray’s victory was marred. Because it will be remembered more for Murray’s crassness and inappropriate “come-ons” in the face of a hobbled Del Potro heartbreakingly forced to concede defeat and the title to Murray 6-7(4), 7-6(3), 6-1.

Before Murray can look that far ahead, to the potential quarterfinal clash against Del Potro that is, he has more immediate threats to worry about and they are not small either. Namely, 6’10” Ivo Karlovic who would be a potential third round opponent and the possible stiff opposition from either Marin Cilic (19 th seed) or Stanislas Wawrinka (19 th seed) in the fourth round.

Of course all this predicates on his ability to survive the early rounds which begin with a first round encounter against Ernests Gulbis of Latvia on Tuesday night.

Juan Martin Del Potro is in a sweeter corner of the fourth quarter and for the most part there are few threats that are cause for concern. He should sail to the last 16 relatively easily. He opens against Monaco and could face Safin in the second round – both players could serve thrilling encounters but Del Potro is the player to beat and there is nothing in their current form to suggest they would do so.

The highest seeded threat in his section is No.9 Gilles Simon who let’s face it is as hot as tepid tea right about now and while he is slotted as a potential last 16 opponent few actually expect the Frenchman will project that far into the tournament. Juan Carlos Ferrero (the 24 th seed) has a much better chance to reach the last 16 than Simon in my opinion. Either opponent though would be a cakewalk for Del Potro.

Quarterfinals Del Potro over Murray in four sets

Semi-final Prediction: Nadal over Del Potro (No. That is what is says. Not a typo)