Why Nikolay Davydenko Will Not Win the Australian Open

Melbourne, Australia – I realize that Nikolay Davydenko comes into the Aussie Open as the hottest player on the tour right now with five titles on last season, including the ATP Barclay’s World Tour Finals – a major and lucrative coup – and one title in the bag on the 2010 season. He arrives in Melbourne on a nine match-winning streak that includes twice beating both Federer and Nadal in back-to-back tournaments and victories against Juan Martin Del Potro and Robin Soderling. Even when realizing all this, and the import of these achievements (and believe me I do and I don’t mean to belittle his achievements at all), I would still maintain he will not win the Aussie Open.

Shocked? Why you might ask. Well, for several reasons. Be forewarned: some may seem fair and others not so, but it is the way of things. Just trying to keep it real.

1. This is a Grand Slam. Davydenko has threatened to win a major title for several years but failed. He is after all 28-years-old. And not for a lack of opportunity has he not won a major title but for a penchant for anxiety attacks. Mentally, I don’t think he will hold up. In spite of his roll, I believe this trend will continue.

2. In a best of five sets, he is beatable. Even though Davydenko has been on a roll and has beaten some quality players along the way, he has done so in one-week tournaments in a best of three set situation. I don’t think he can sustain a successful run of best of five matches over two weeks against some of the biggest hitters in the game. Not a chance. Especially when you consider points 4, 5 &6 in conjunction.

3. Not a fan favourite: Sad to say it but he is not a fan favourite. Sure, he has been winning a lot lately but that fact has not necessarily won him a whole horde of fans. Pit him against a home favourite or a more likeable player and he will be playing against the crowd.

4. Davydenko is not a big-ticket draw. Because he isn’t a fan favourite, he doesn’t have the same kind of pull a Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal has. What this means for tournament directors is that they will schedule him accordingly and in correlation to ticket sales. You won’t see Davydenko benefiting from night matches (and cool breezes) at Rod Laver Arena – at least not on his own merit. It would take a billing against a more popular player or a home favourite to reward him with a court date on Rod Laver. Don’t forget there is a whole women’s aspect to the Aussie Open that has to be accommodated as well that fans want to see at Rod Laver.

5. Out of sight, out of mind. So, more likely than not he will be relegated to the second or third biggest stadium, maybe even occasionally on an outer court, and more often than not he will be a daytime act. This has been the way for Davydenko in previous Grand Slams. It is nothing new for him but it still hinders his chances to go far.

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6. Melbourne Heat. The scorching temperatures during the summer months in Melbourne that coincide with the Aussie Open are legendary. Davydenko has been working with a new fitness coach but the sun has claimed even better players than he is. The fact that he will more likely than not be scheduled as a daytime act will leave him at the mercy of the heat. Many of the outside courts don’t have retractable roofs and that can take its toll.