AIG Japan Open Semi-Final - Gasquet vs. Del Potro

Tokyo, Japan – In the top half of the draw, the online tennis betting community has a chance to bet on one of the hottest players on the tour in Juan Martin Del Potro as he goes to battle against a not-so-hot-lately, Richard Gasquet for a premier position in the AIG Japan Open final.

Juan Martin Del Potro enjoyed a breakthrough summer that saw him pick up four ATP titles in a row, spanning two surfaces. He continued the momentum all the way to the US Open quarterfinal wherein Andy Murray ended his winning streak at 24 consecutive matches. Del Potro further augmented his stock in the tennis betting market when he won the deciding rubber in the Davis Cup tie between USA and Argentina to propel his country into the final.

Richard Gasquet by contrast has been mired in a slump for the most part this year. Amidst some encouraging results, he has posted some that were just downright substandard for him. The French No.1 is trying to salvage what has been a poor showing this season by reviving his game during the year-ending indoor swing and positioning himself favourably for the 2009 season. Last week at the China Open he reached the quarters and this week, he has gone one better to reach the semis. Can he go even further?

Head-to-Head Analysis: Juan Martin Del Potro beat Richard Gasquet in the Stuttgart final to pick his first-ever career ATP title. The title victory was a watershed moment for the Argentine as it proved to be a catalyst for more success; he went on to pick up three more titles. Lifetime, they are tied 1-1; Gasquet beat Del Potro as recently as the 2007 Indian Wells.

Tennis Betting Line: Juan Martin Del Potro -240 Richard Gasquet +180

Match Time: 05:00 AM Eastern Time Saturday October 4, 2008

Tennis Betting Analysis:

Del Potro (-240) Given that this has been a breakthrough year for Del Potro and he has the results to back it up, he is rightly favoured in this match. The world No.12 Del Potro brought and impeccable 34-9 mark for the year, including four ATP titles. In Tokyo, Del Potro breezed through the tournament on the heels of convincing victories. He topped Dudi Sela 7-5, 6-0, Jarkko Nieminen 6-1, 6-3 and David Ferrer 6-1, 7-5. He improves to 42-9. He has dropped 15 games in three matches; that is an average of five games a match.

Gasquet (+180) Gasquet is a quality underdog so there is value in his price tag, but this presupposes he plays the way we know he is capable of playing. If the Gasquet that earned the nickname of “baby Federer” appears on court tomorrow, well then we should have an exciting match and even an upset based on the tennis betting line. The world No.12 has glided through the tournament with impressive wins over Martin Slanar (6-4, 6-2), Kei Nishikori (6-1, 6-2) and Rainer Schuettler (6-3, 6-2). He has dropped only 14 games in three matches – one less than Del Potro has.

Tennis Betting Verdict: If both bring the game, we have seen them play to reach this stage this should be an excitingly competitive match and much closer than the tennis betting line would suggest. Gasquet holds the better value as the underdog as a $100 bet on him would yield $180 in winnings for a total pot of $280. To win a $100 on Del Potro a bettor would have to risk $240 for a combined pot of $240. But Del Potro has had the better year and his confidence is sky high so the math notwithstanding, I fancy his chances.

Tennis Betting Picks: Del Potro in straight sets

Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room