Melbourne, Australia – Arguably, the all-Spanish affair between World No.1 Rafael Nadal and World No. 7 David Ferrer is the standout quarterfinal match on the Australian Open betting card today.
World No.1 Rafael Nadal continues his pursuit of history in Melbourne as he reaches the quarterfinal round on the back of a convincing R16 victory over Marin Cilic. Nadal advanced without dropping a set to the Croatian rising star, a player that belonged to a select few active players, ahead of the clash, to have owned a winning record against Nadal that stood at 1-0.
Nadal’s clean sheet against Cilic extends his formidable grand slam form: in eleven straight grand slam matches since the 2010 US Open Nadal has dropped just one set – and that was to Novak Djokovic in the US Open final.
If that doesn’t make Nadal a formidable threat for the Australian Open title this week, then I don’t know what will. (Nadal is listed as the outright favourite to win the title at +135 at BetUS Sportsbook; the second best priced player (ahead of the quarterfinal rounds) is Roger Federer tipped at +200).
Of course, good form is not all that would make Nadal a threat. This is Nadal, the tennis equivalent of the Terminator. Still, it’s definitely a welcome boon for concerned Rafa fans; especially, after he came down with a fever in Doha and the symptoms, which visibly persisted through the first week of the Australian Open, to the point where his wan demeanour looked to threaten his bid, and his stake in Open Era history, had all on tenterhooks. Waiting to see what heroics, if any at all, he could possibly conjure Down Under.
A reassuring stat that Nadal offers his tennis backers, and that which he’s certainly held true to form in Melbourne, is his record after winning the first set. Nadal has a formidable 111/1 win/loss ratio at the Grand Slam level after winning the first set. Indeed, that humongous statistic makes a strong case for Nadal in that he’ll be tough to beat if he maintains this form to Sunday’s premier movement.
Those tennis betting fans looking to back Ferrer have a soupcon of hope because the lone match that Nadal lost at a Grand Slam after winning the first set was at the 2007 US Open R16 to, none other than, Ferrer.
At the same time, this encouraging feat by Ferrer is even more promising because it draws him level with Nadal at 1-1 in their head-to-head series at a Grand Slam level, and to date that account remains the last account between the pair at this level.
Of course, this major detail is negated by the overwhelming head-to-head edge for Nadal that stands at 11-3 in the pairs’ series lifetime, which includes a 3-2 edge on hard courts. Moreover, Nadal is on a seven-game winning streak against Ferrer, and over the span of those meetings, he’s dropped one of 14 sets played.
To impress upon Australian Open betting fans the difficulty Ferrer faces, the overwhelming, daunting task that it is to upend Nadal at a Grand Slam one need only look at the prop bets that are circulating on what Nadal’s stage of elimination at the tournament might be.
For a quarterfinal exit, Nadal is tipped the largest at +400 whereas a semi-final exit by the World No.1 is listed at significantly lower odds of +200 and a runner-up finish is tipped at +300. Perhaps, the most revealing market however is the market within this platform on Nadal to win the tournament that is listed at +135.
Equally revealing is the “name the finalists odds” that have David Ferrer featured in only one scenario, against Federer in the final, and that market is listed at a whopping +3500. Oh, and that Ferrer is the largest bet of the remaining field (that is deemed worthy of consideration) to reach the final, tipped at +2000 and a staggering +10,000 bet (larger than the unheralded Dolgopolov, if you can believe) to win the tournament is telling, isn’t it.
Overall, the overwhelming expectation in Australian Open betting circles is that Nadal will advance over Ferrer, and this expectation is certainly backed by bookies. What do you think?
To bet on the Australian Open check out the full menu of tennis betting lines and odds that are in full swing at BetUS Sportsbook!