Rogers Cup Betting Preview – Can Andy Murray Defend his Title?

Toronto, Canada – History, and by that I mean past results, say, No. Andy Murray has never successfully defended a Masters title in his career. Nevertheless, it is what he is aiming to do in Canada this week. Without a coach, I might add, as “Team Murray” recently underwent a personnel change, firing Miles Maclagan.

To say it so, one would think he has won loads of major titles and has been an utter failure at defending them. Fact is he has won only four – more than most, granted, but nowhere near the number of titles Nadal and Federer have collected over their illustrious careers. That duo is in a different league to be sure.

The four Masters Shields to his credit are Cincinnati (2008), Madrid (2008), Miami (2009) and Canada (2009).

Can Murray do what he has never done before: defend a Masters Series title?

First, let us look at where he resides in the draw. Murray is in the same half of the draw as Rafael Nadal, which means he is slotted to meet the newly minted World No.1 in the semis.

Murray has never beaten Nadal at a Masters Series event. In five career meetings at this level, Murray is an impressive 0-5 against Nadal.

Lifetime, Murray trails 3-8 to Nadal; his most significant wins over the Spaniard were at the 2008 US Open and the 2010 Australian Open.

Arguably, both times Nadal was hampered by his much talked about bum knees. Rafa doesn’t whinge about that and point to those appendages as a pretext for his losses so neither should we. Kudos Andy!

In fact, those wins ever propel the notion that Murray is close to making his Grand Slam breakthrough but each time he has the chance to take that all-important step forward he takes two steps backwards instead. Funny that.

Before Murray reaches the semis, he could potentially meet Soderling or Nalbandian in the quarters. Murray is level with Soderling 2-2 lifetime but he has lost the last two matches in a row to the big Swede and as recently as Indian Wells Masters 2010. Nalbandian, on the other hand, owns Murray 2-0.

You know that Nalbandian just won Washington, his first event back since early spring after taking time off for an injury. That is a matchup I would like to see now should it come about in Toronto.

Federer, Djokovic, Davydenko and Berdych are some of the potential threats in the second half of the draw and that are considered to have the best shot to emerge into the final.

How does Murray stack up against this quartet?

• He leads 6-5 against Federer, but has lost the last three matches in a row
• He trails Djokovic 3-4, but has won their last three encounters in a row
• He trails 1-2 to Berdych and has lost the last two encounters in a row
• He leads 5-4 against Davydenko and has won the last two encounters in a row.

Whichever way you slice these stats they aren’t exactly encouraging. It would seem the odds would favour Murray best if he were to come up against Djokovic or Davydenko in the final but given his form this season, even against them I wouldn’t back Murray with any conviction..