Tough to Go Against Favorite in Tennis Futures
Australian Open Mens Picks

There’s a huge tennis tournament going on this week in Australia.  It’s one of the biggest Pro Tennis betting tournaments of the year and although the odds in the sportsbook range from +125 on the favorite to +35000 on the longest shot, it’s very difficult to go against the favorite in the futures’ book.

In fact, on the men’s side, the battle for the title in Australia figures to come down to only three possible winners with another tennis player having an outside shot to upset the Top 3.  Keep reading for info and picks!

2012 Australian Open

When:  January 16 – January 29

Where:  Melbourne, Victoria Australia

Category:  Grand Slam

Top Pick:  Novak Djokovic +125

The Serbian won the Australian Open in 2011.  In fact, Djokovic has won two Australian Open titles, one last year and the other in 2008, and is the number one ranked player in the world.  He should be.  Djokovic’s 2011 was a tennis player’s dream.  Djokovic won the U.S. Open and Wimbledon in addition to winning the Australian Open.  He finished in the semi-finals at the French Open.  The man was a match away from taking home the Grand Slam of Tennis in 2011.

Anything above even money, and +125 is definitely above even money, makes Djokovic an overlay wager to take home the Australian Open in 2012.  He’s the king of the court right now and proved it in his first Australian match on Jan. 16 when he took down Italy’s Paolo Lorenzi 6-2, 6-0, 6-0.  Djokovic is virtually unbeatable right now, is in excellent condition, and with third choice Rafael Nadal playing through a slight knee injury, there isn’t a lot of competition standing in Djokovic’s way to the title.  Wager with confidence, friends, because Djokovic is providing a sweet 25% profit on the initial bet in the future’s book to win the Australian Open.  The odds are nice.

Second Pick:  Roger Federer +350

Getting close to 4 to 1 on Federer, and +225 on top of the odds on the fave, to win the Australian Open makes the yellow ball hitting master another overlay.  Federer has to be considered a serious threat to Djokovic.  In 2011, Federer lost to Djokovic in the Australia Open semis.  He ended up suffering through a horrendous rest of the year due to nagging injuries, but, now healthy, Federer figures to climb back on top, or at least get close to the top of the tennis world.  Only Djokovic stands in his way with Nadal nursing the knee injury.

Nadal, whom Federer has a serious rivalry with, was fantastic on Jan. 16th on day one, but the knee injury figures to worsen as the tournament commences making Federer the one to back at the decent odds.  Federer has won four Australian Open titles and that’s why he’s a serious challenger to Djokovic’s supremacy.

Third Pick:  Andy Murray +500

After escaping with a victory over Ryan Harrison on Day 2 of the tournament, it can be forgiven if many tennis handicappers dismiss putting Murray in the Top 3.  That would be a mistake.  Murray, because of the tough battle with Harrison, has already gotten through his big test.  The man has finished in the Australian Open finals the past two years and is ranked 4th in the world.  Murray deserves to be in the discussion and although he might not be in the same class as Djokovic, or even Federer for that matter, he’s certainly a talented tennis player.  Plus, the odds are definitely right on the 2010 and 2011 runner-up.

Betting Strategy

After looking at this week's odds in Pro Tennis, I’m going to take $100 and work with the numbers to make a profit if Murray or Djokovic wins and cut my losses with a Federer victory.  I’m taking a chance by not using Nadal, but the injury should put Rafa out of the running for the title very soon in this tournament.

I’m going to put $65 to win on Novak Djokovic.  At +125, my $65 translates to a $81.25 profit.  So, for $65, I get back a total of $146.25 or a profit of $46.25 off of the entire $100.  Not bad.

I’m going to back Murray with $20.  At +500, if Murray wins, I get $120 back for a total profit of $20 off of my $100.  Then, I’m going to go with Federer with my final $15.  If Federer takes home the title at +350, my return will be $67.50 for a loss of $32.50.

 

Good luck!