ATP Indian Wells Men's Final Betting: Roddick and Ljubicic battle in the final

Indian Wells, California – Of course, this is not the final most expected at the start of the tournament, and certainly not the match (or at least the one-half of it) that most expected when the final four were revealed. But here is, feast your eyes on the billing: Roddick vs. Ljubicic.

Roddick advanced into the final after beating Robin Soderling late Saturday afternoon 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. Roddick was given an outside chance in the market against Soderling and that was because Soderling had come off his biggest win at a Masters against Andy Murray.

But Soderling was bound to be a letdown against Roddick for two reasons a) Roddick had home edge and b) Soderling is not ready to win an ATP 1000 tournament yet.

I mean Roddick who has been a regular in the top ten for many years last won a Masters in 2006. They are not easy titles to win.

Ljubicic a former world No.3 has never won a Masters title, finishing runner-up three-times instead. After masterminding the biggest upset of the tournament, beating Rafael Nadal  3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (1) in the semis yesterday, he will have another shot at a Masters Shield.

The tipping question: can Pappa Ljubicic win his first-ever Masters at 31-years-old or will the American Roddick, finally have his day again and pick up his fifth career Masters shield since 2006.  

Tennis Betting Line:
Andy Roddick -3  -105   -300   23½  O -130   U -110  
Ivan Ljubicic  +3  -135   +200   23½  O -130   U -110  

First Set Line:Andy Roddick     -200        Ivan Ljubicic     +150  

Match Time: 05:00 PM Eastern Time Sunday March 21, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Roddick enters this match as the favourite at -300 to win outright and the -200 to win the first set. Ljubicic, conversely, is the modest underdog at +200 to win outright and the +150 underdog to take the first set.

Both have seen marked improvements in their stock value since the semis. Roddick has crossed over from puppy to favourite, a move that is understandable when he takes a 7-3 head-to-head edge over Ljubicic and home edge into this match.

Ljubicic has been scaled down as a puppy considerably compared to his odds yesterday against Nadal. That he beat Nadal is probably the reason why his value saw an uptick. But he remains the underdog in this match for all the same reasons he was the underdog against Nadal – a losing head-to-head mark and age. Yet he has defied all to reach the final.

This match is tougher to call than some might think because both players have touching stories to motivate them to victory. Ljubicic’s story is that of a player, once formidable but now coming to terms with age and the limitations within. Should he cap his run with the title today, his Cinderella run will truly have the happy ending it deserves.

Roddick’s story is that of a talented player who in his prime was forced to take a back seat to greater players than he is – Federer and Nadal. For years, he has watched as the pair outdid him and each other and won anything and everything of note. Is it finally his turn? Does he get to win a big title for the first time in four years.

Though both stories are compelling and they each deserve a happy end, it is not possible. There has to be a winner and a loser today. I am backing Roddick to win this match in straight sets

Tennis Free Picks: Roddick in straight sets