ATP Indian Wells Quarters: Murray vs. Soderling

Indian Wells, California – The upset bug is highly contagious, and it spreads like wildfire amongst self-doubters and mental train wrecks, yet somehow Andy Murray has avoided the bug at Indian Wells while others like Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have fallen victim. Hmph. Go figure.

I thought it would happen to him to be honest. I thought it might happen against Nicolas Almagro in the fourth round specifically given how well the Spaniard had been playing up to that point.

And after the first three games of their encounter were done and dusted, highlighted by Almagro running Murray ragged and breaking him on serve, I thought he would take the express exit queue.

Unfortunately, Almagro, and some would say fortunately for Murray, suffered a foot injury mid-match and had to retire at the beginning of the second set. What a reprieve for Murray to get – although by then he had found his game and looked to be well on his way to the quarters.

Next up for Murray, however, is a dangerous dark horse in Robin Soderling. Murray won’t be getting any reprieve here. I am not a huge fan of the Sod, don’t fancy his big-swinging forehand at all which is the ugliest forehand in the game if you ask me, but I recognize the Swede poses a threat and has the game to vex Murray.

Murray just edges Soderling in head-to-heads at 2-1 lifetime but their mark is so out of date to be irrelevant for their upcoming match. The last time the pair met was in 2006, an encounter Soderling won in straight convincing sets 6-1, 6-4.

Soderling is blessed with a healthy disrespect for all top players. He is not the type of player to be struck by the awe of his opponent on court, quake in his custom-made trainers, and doubt his abilities.

On the contrary, he is that blend of arrogance and egotism to be that irksome opponent that gets under your skin. Spells a bit of trouble for Murray.

When it comes down to keeping emotions in check and not allowing an opponent to get under your skin, he fails miserably.

Tennis Betting Line:

Andrew Murray -2½ -125 -200 23½ O -110 U -130
Robin Soderling +2½ -115 +150 23½ O -110 U -130

First Set Line: Andrew Murray -170 Robin Soderling +130

Match Time: 07:00 PM Eastern Time Friday March 19, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Murray is the conservative favourite at -200 to win outright and for the most part, bettors will be backing him for the win. What with his top five ranking and heir to the World No.1 rank pretensions, you have to give him the edge. I get that.

This match is far from being that simple however, evinced by Soderling’s mere underdog odds of +150. Soderling is a real threat and has the ability to beat Murray.

Importantly, he is not afraid to do so. That makes him the value bet in my opinion. I personally would prefer a Soderling-less tournament but I can’t say I will get my wish.

Soderling backers might want to hedge their bets with a risk on his spread odds, listed at +2 ½ -115. If he wins or loses, the expectation is it will be a close match.

Complimenting this play is a bet on the totals, listed at 23 ½ -130 for the Under the favoured outcome and 23 ½ Over at -110. I fancy the Over in this match.