ATP Indian Wells Quarterfinals Tennis Betting: Nadal vs. Berdych

Indian Wells, California – Rafael Nadal, the defending champion at Indian Wells, is still standing and he hopes to remain in contention until the business end, capping his run with a second consecutive BNP Paribas Open title. He is two victories away from negotiating a premier position in Sunday’s finale.

Standing in Nadal’s way is a potentially dangerous dark horse in Tomas Berdych so Nadal will have to be on top of his game if he is first to make a semi-final appointment.

Berdych has been in devastating form in the Californian desert, underscoring his run with perhaps the most convincing victory of all, a 6-0, 6-3 trouncing of Fernando Verdasco. I don’t remember the last time Verdasco was bagelled.

When Berdych is on he is dangerous and sometimes only person that can get in his way is he himself. As such, there is a bit of a nervous trepidation in the market where this matchup is concerned.

Can Berdych bring out the best in him against Nadal and accomplish something he last did in 2006.

Berdych trails 3-6 lifetime against Nadal; most significant, is the fact that he has lost five in a row since 2006 ATP Masters Madrid when he beat Nadal 6-3, 7-6(6) in the quarters. Importantly, Nadal earned all five wins on all surfaces –hard, clay and grass.

Tennis Betting Line:

Tomas Berdych +3½ -130 +250 22½ O -130 U -110
Rafael Nadal -3½ -110 -400 22½ O -130 U -110

First Set Line:

Tomas Berdych +200 9½ O -165 U +125
Rafael Nadal -300 9½ O -165 U +125

Match Time: 10:30 PM Eastern Time Thursday March 18, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: While I am pleased for Berdych, seemingly getting a handle on his game I am not entirely convinced the days of unravelling on court are behind him. A run like this is nothing new for Berdych.

He sometimes finds his stride and cruises past the competition (been there, done that) but as soon as he comes up against a top player, of Nadal or Federer-ilk, it seems like the light goes out and he is reduced to an average version of himself.

It is rather perplexing but the only explanation is a grievous lack of confidence that only shows up when starring down the real deal in the game. Moreover, he is really a one-trick pony. He has one style of play and when it works he wins.

But players like Nadal and Federer are great at altering their game to suit the opponent and figuring out ways to win. Berdych so far hasn’t shown he can do that so when he is all out of tricks he just withers away.

That said I think there is some value to be had on him in the market. At +250 he is modest underdog with a chance to vex Nadal. On the spread he offers value at +3 ½ -130 and he could force Nadal to play hard for the win by taking it to three sets making the Over 22 ½ -130 the choice bet.

Nadal though is the solid favourite at -400 and what I think recommends his odds is the form we have seen him show up with at Indian Wells.

Considering he hasn’t played since January, he is in great form. He has starred down some tough opponents, namely John Isner in the third round.

I think he can take on Berdych with confidence. He also has a winning record against Berdych, which includes a 6-4 7-5 win in Cincinnati (hard) and a 7-5, 6-0, 6-2 in Davis Cup last year.