ATP Indian Wells R16 Picks: Djokovic vs. Ljubicic

Indian Wells, California – Serbian Novak Djokovic is the highest seed alive at Indian Wells going into the last 16 after the massive upset of Roger Federer by Marcos Baghdatis last night. Djokovic is now the de facto short-odds-on favourite to win the title, according to ranking and seeding. Some would Andy Murray though as the outright favourite for the title. Noticeably absent in the discussion is the defending champion himself, Rafael Nadal who happens to be active in the proceedings as well. But that is another matter entirely.

Back to Djokovic. Djokovic opens his bid for a spot in the quarterfinals against Croatian, Ivan Ljubicic early this afternoon. It will be the pair’s seventh career meeting.

Djokovic leads the series convincingly, 5-1. In fact, the last, and only time, Ljubicic beat Djokovic was in 2006 in Zagreb (carpet). Ljubicic earned a hard fought victory at the time, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-4. Since then, Ljubicic has lost five in a row to Djokovic, barely even making a dent in the Serbian’s game. He won only one of 11 sets played.

Naturally, Djokovic enters this match as the overwhelming favourite to win outright. Backing his odds is a positive mark on the season at 15-2, which includes the Dubai title. Over and above his season, there are the intangibles. Djokovic, in my opinion, has matured into a decent competitor. Last year, for me, he seemed to be short on confidence and self-belief, which became increasingly apparent in clutch matches when he would seem to inexplicably wilt away in crucial matches after playing superbly in the earlier rounds of a tournament, against lesser opponents. Case-and-point: Djokovic has not had an easy ride into the last 16 and at one point even looked to be on his way out; Kohlschreiber had several match points against him. Somehow, Djokovic dug deep and pulled off the victory. This was not always the case last season.

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Having said all that I don’t mean to diminish Ljubicic and his chances in this match. True, he has lost five in a row to Djokovic and there is little to suggest he might snap that negative trend. There was nothing tangible to suggest Baghdatis would snap a six-matching losing streak against Federer but he did, didn’t he. Indian Wells has done its best to defy the market and deliver upsets. It stands to reason the tournament is not done doing so, no.

Tennis Betting Line :

Ivan Ljubicic +3½ -115 +235 22½ O -130 U -110
Novak Djokovic -3½ -125 -375 22½ O -130 U -110

First Set Line: Ivan Ljubicic +185 Novak Djokovic -250

Match time: 04:30 PM Eastern Time Wednesday March 17, 2010

Tennis Betting Verdict: Tennis betting fans looking to back Djokovic will find him listed at favourable -375 odds to win outright. He is the firm favourite but he is not an untouchable favourite. Ljubicic comes in at rather mere odds of +235, well within a reasonable range to suggest he has a theoretical chance and give fans some confidence if they are looking to buck the trend. For more conservative minded players, looking to cover both ends, Ljubicic on the spread at + 3 ½ -115 might be your best bet.