ATP St. Petersburg Quarters: Gulbis takes on unheralded Zeballos

St. Petersburg, Russia – As the season winds to a close Ernest Gulbis seemingly finds his game. Go figure. The Latvian that many consider a tennis prodigy has been a perpetual underachiever this term. Finally, just as everyone was done making allowances for what was seeming like an unmotivated and disinterested effort by Gulbis (bit of a silver spoon he is), didn’t he himself break the deadlock by finishing in the quarters in Tokyo (l. to eventual champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga).

After reaching a career high ranking of world No.38 in August last year many expected him to build on that result in 2009. Instead, Gulbis went backwards and his ranking declined with him to its current stance at No.100.

From January, when the season kicked off, to September Gulbis was either a first or a second round casualty. His inability to get any sort of run going was frustrating. There was no doubt he was punching below his weight class – he should be a top 20 player given the organic talent he possesses.

But his mini-momentum run in Tokyo didn’t spill forth as he followed up with first round exits in the subsequent Shanghai Masters and at Stockholm. Those poised to jump on his bandwagon had a change of heart, understandably – they had seen this too often. So when the St. Petersburg Open got underway, tennis bettors reverted to their first opinion of Gulbis and wrote him out of the proceedings.

Well, here he is in the quarterfinals – only his second quarterfinal of the season in the same month – with a shot to advance into the semis. A decidedly better shot than he had in Tokyo because his opponent World No. 54 Horacio Zeballos is a far cry from top-tenner Tsonga. Gulbis, a top 20 calibre (if not better), should based on his talent be able to dispatch Zeballos. The tipping question: will Gulbis punch at his weight class?

Tennis Betting Line: Ernests Gulbis -300 Horacio Zeballos +200

Match Time: 04:00 am Eastern Time Friday October 30, 2009

Tennis Betting Verdict: The bookies have gone and given Gulbis the nod in spite of his lackadaisical season, listing him at -300 to win outright. There is no doubt in the minds of many that this match is on Gulbis’ racquet. It is his for the taking. It is also his to lose, which he has done quite often this term evinced by his 18-25 mark. Would then betting against him be the smarter strategy?

Zeballos is a lightweight in the game. He weighs in at No.54 in the world – on a significantly higher ranking the Gulbis but he built his ranking on the back of successes at the lower circuit; winning three Challenger titles and finishing runner-up twice. His ATP exposure on the other hand has been limited. He arrived in St. Petersburg 1-3 on the season.

Gulbis had tough wins over Florian Mayer and Jeremy Chardy to reach the quarters, both of which are good signs he might be finally on track. Zeballos benefited from an easy section of the draw to reach the quarters facing qualifiers Yuri Schukin and Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr.